The Padres are looking to double down on their success from last year when they were one win away from the NLCS. How can they get back there and perhaps get farther into October?

The saying goes, “Just make it into the dance, and you never know what can happen.” Last year, the Padres, after trading Juan Soto, won 93 games and had the eventual World Series champion Dodgers on the ropes in the NLDS. The Padres were clearly very close to making a run at a World Series title.

Indeed, the team looks much different this year. Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano, David Peralta, Kyle Higashioka, Tanner Scott, and Ha-Seong Kim are gone. Nick Pivetta, Jose Iglesias, Connor Joe, Jason Heyward, and spring standout Gavin Sheets are into the fold.

How can this group repeat or even exceed what the 2024 squad did?

Making the playoffs in Major League Baseball is not a cut-and-dry formula. You could win 90 games, but if the league around you is excellent, there could be three 90-plus win Wild Card teams that box you out. Or, 90 wins could win you the entire division. How can this team, in the current climate of the National League, secure a playoff spot?

Let’s get this out there first and foremost. While not statistically impossible, winning the National League West is highly unlikely. The Dodgers currently have an 83.4 percent chance to win the division, per FanGraphs. That is the largest percentage chance of any team in any division by a clear 20 percent. Obviously, winning the NL West is the cleanest, quickest way to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, San Diego is simply in the wrong division.

The Wild Card appears the most likely avenue.

Frankly, the National League is stacked. FanGraphs has three teams with higher Wild Card chances in the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Mets. The Giants are also someone to be concerned about. Whoever doesn’t win the NL East between the Braves, Phillies, and Mets will be fighting for spots.

The battle inside the NL West for Wild Card spots could be very heated. There are three Wild Card spots for the entire NL. The Giants, Padres, and Diamondbacks are all projected to have at least 81 wins. One of those will get a Wild Card spot. If things break right in the National League, perhaps two.

The first battle the Padres must fight is making sure they bank wins against the Diamondbacks and Giants. Last season, the Padres went 7-6 against both of those teams. Having a winning record against both, which means having the tiebreaker over them, is imperative. All three of these teams will be competing for a Wild Card spot or two. San Diego needs to have the tiebreaker over the other two.

Reason #1: winning record vs. Diamondbacks and Giants

Getting more into the details of the team, there are certain players that need to have big years. Jackson Merrill seems like a big X-factor this season. The question is, will he experience the dreaded sophomore slump? If he does, it will be hard for this team, which lacks elite depth, to overcome. After he was basically an experiment in centerfield as a 21-year-old last year, the Padres are now heavily depending on Merrill to produce at the plate. His rookie year was phenomenal, racking up 5.3 fWAR, .292 average, 24 HR, and 130 wRC+.

ZiPS projects Merrill to have a solid year but below the production of his rookie campaign. The projection sits at 4.4 fWAR, .281 average, 21 HR, and 119 wRC+. That seems like the bar for Merrill to meet to avoid the sophomore slump label.

Reason #2: Jackson Merrill avoids sophomore slump

The Padres are not short on star power. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado move the needle in the grand landscape of Major League Baseball. Xander Bogaerts did that in Boston but has not yet captured that same magic in San Diego. Those three are also being paid a combined $970 million in total contract value over a decade-plus. Machado and Tatis have certainly pulled their own weight more so than Bogaerts the last two seasons. Machado amassed 3.1 WAR last year. Tatis earned 2.6. While Bogaerts posted a meager 1.2, with an injury-riddled season.

Quite simply, the Padres need their stars to play like stars. They don’t necessarily need MVP-level seasons from any of them, but given their paychecks and the oxygen they take up in the room, these three need to produce. Machado’s career averages are .826 OPS, 124 OPS+, and 5.4 WAR per season. Tatis checks in at .883 OPS, 143 OPS+, and 6.8 WAR. Bogaerts sits at .803 OPS, 115 OPS+, and 4.3 WAR.

The Padres just need their bottom lines to look very similar to their career marks. Given their lack of depth, the Padres need the better version of Bogaerts especially.

Reason #3: Machado, Tatis, and Bogaerts perform to career averages

Obviously, a key to any team’s success over a 162-game MLB season is health. That especially is true pertaining to the pitching staff, more specifically, the starting rotation. Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish, and Nick Pivetta are extremely pertinent to this team’s success. If all four are healthy and pitching well, this team should be right in the thick of things. If one or more of those top starters go down for an extended period of time, things could go sideways in a hurry. Yu Darvish is going to need to start more than the 16 games he did last season. If any of these four miss more than a few weeks, it’s going to be a huge stressor on the team. Expecting all four to make 32-plus starts is unrealistic. However, they don’t have the depth this season to shoulder major injuries in the rotation for more than a handful of starts each.

Reason #4: Darvish, Cease, Pivetta, and King all make at least 25 starts

Every good team has those “glue guys.” Those role players who play a specific part in the team’s success, even if that doesn’t make them All-Stars or even everyday starters. Last year, it was the likes of Donovan Solano, David Peralta, and starter Martin Perez after the trade deadline. Those players made key contributions down the stretch. Solano batted .286. Peralta had a 109 OPS+ while filling in for Tatis during his injury. Perez posted a 3.46 ERA in 10 starts late in the season. Every championship hopeful has players like that step up.

Who will that be this year? The Padres don’t have the same depth they did a year ago on paper. That doesn’t mean players can’t emerge unexpectedly. That’s usually how it happens in the first place. This year, those players could be names like Connor Joe, Gavin Sheets, Jose Iglesias, Eguy Rosario, or Tirso Ornelas. One, or multiple, of those names needs to exceed expectations to boost the overall depth of this team.

Reason #5 An unexpected impact player emerges 

Nick Lee

Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.