San Diego opened the 2025 season with a thrilling series sweep against Atlanta and will host the Cleveland Guardians on Monday.

The Guardians are coming off a division title last season, although the Padres finished a game ahead of them.

The two squads met after the All-Star break last year. San Diego dropped the opener but rallied to take the next two games, beginning a seven-game winning streak.

Cleveland opened their season by taking two of three against the Royals in Kansas City. They stormed back from a three-run deficit on Opening Day and won the rubber match on Sunday behind a scoreless five and two-thirds from Tanner Bibee.

Cleveland’s offseason saw the departure of Josh Naylor, who hit 31 homers and drove in 108 RBI. They addressed the first base hole by reuniting with Carlos Santana, who spent his first eight MLB seasons with the club. They also added Paul Sewald from the Diamondbacks, who surrendered a walk-off homer to Manny Machado the last time he saw the Friars.

The difference in the series could come down to the scheduling. San Diego played four games to open the year, while Cleveland only played three. Consequently, the Padres will use their 5, 1, and 2 starters, and the Guardians will use their 4th and 5th before turning to their ace on Sunday.

Pitching Matchups

Kyle Hart is expected to make his Padre debut on Monday, and the rotation will turn back around to Michael King and Dylan Cease. As for Yu Darvish, he extended his throwing distance from 75 to 90 feet and is now hoping to get up to 105 feet (via Kevin Acee).

Cleveland’s Luis L. Ortiz is slated to make his first start on Monday. He made back-to-back starts against San Diego in August, giving up four runs over six innings in Pittsburg and two runs over five innings in SaAfterego. Past that, Logan Allen will go on, followed by Ben Lively.

Game 1: RHP Luis L. Ortiz vs. LHP Kyle Hart

Game 2: LHP Logan Allen vs. RHP Michael King

Game 3: RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Guardians Pitchers

Luis. L. Ortiz features a four-pitch mix of a slider, four-seam, two-seam, and cutter, and throws them relatively equally. He throws at a near-sidearm release and gets lots of armside run as a result. Allen, 26, is more of a developing piece in the rotation. He posted a 5.73 ERA in just under 100 innings in his sophomore campaign last season. Ben Lively got the Opening Day start for Cleveland, going five innings and surrendering a three-run homer to Vinnie Pasquantino.

The Guardians’ bullpen is one of the best units in the sport. Paul Sewald, a closer in Arizona, figures to slot into a middle relief role. Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith, who could be closers on numerous other teams, both posted a sub-two ERA last season. In fact, Smith even got a 10th-place Cy Young vote. Their bullpen is bolstered by the best closer in baseball, Emmanuel Clase, who’s locked down 133 saves since 2022 and finished 3rd in AL Cy Young last year.

Guardians Hitters

The loss of Naylor is tough, but Kyle Manzardo and the new addition, Carlos Santana, figure to help fill the gap. The big news to watch for will be the availability of José Ramírez, who is day-to-day with a wrist injury he suffered on Saturday. As for the rest of the lineup, it figures to line up like this:

1. Steven Kwan – Left Field
2. Lane Thomas – Center Field
3. Kyle Manzardo – Designated Hitter
4. Carlos Santana – First Base
5. Nolan Jones – Right Field
6. Bo Naylor – Catcher
7. Gabriel Arias – Third Base
8. Daniel Schneemann – Second Base
9. Brayan Rocchio – Shortstop

Versus the lefty Hart, Naylor, Manzardo, and Jones could all possibly be moved down in the lineup, but if Ramírez is still unavailable, Cleveland doesn’t have a ton of options to mix and match. With Kwan leading off out of the left-hand batter’s box as well, Hart should have the matchup advantage for most of his outing.

Keys to the Series

For the visiting Guardians

Five strong from the starters: Cleveland has arguably the best bullpen in the MLB, but they need to spread out the usage, especially with their ace Ben Lively going on Wednesday. Ideally, you’d want either Gaddis or Smith and Clase to be available for game three.

Don’t let Hart settle in: The first game will be a big one, and if Cleveland wants to put up runs, they likely want to avoid the bullpen. Hart has the talent but hasn’t made an MLB start since 2020. The Guards’ hitters should be swinging early and often against Hart.

For the Padres

Get La Regadera going: Luis Arraez, the 3-time batting champ, is still hitless in the new season. Now batting second in the order, Luis Arraez is vital to stringing together the big innings that they were able to produce in 2024. The offense produced just nine runs in the last three games, and Arraez is the X-factor in creating the crooked numbers.

Keep the line moving: The early trend for this year’s team has been to stack on one or two run innings. However, if the Padres want to dominate games like they did in 2024, they’ll need some of those big innings, especially before they see the dangerous Cleveland bullpen.

Willy Warren

A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a combination of around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X, and daily newsletters on the TikTok platform. Willy passionately studies Journalism at San Dieguito Academy, and is working to become billingual in Spanish to assist in communicating with Latin-born players and coaches.