Statistics are best utilized to paint pictures of complicated realities and make them understandable. Among a sea of numbers describing SDSU football since Brady Hoke’s first hire in 2009, a series of stats explains why the program hired Sean Lewis in December. 

Hoke inherited QB Ryan Lindley from his predecessor, Chuck Long. In Lindley’s final three years on The Mesa, which included one year under Rocky Long, the team threw for at least 200 yards in 31 of 38 games (82%). This total included 20 contests of 250+ yards and 11 over 300. 

During the 12 seasons since SDSU’s current offensive analyst left campus, the team reached 200 passing yards in 57 out of 153 contests (37%). Only 27 times did the Aztecs exceed 249 yards. Amazingly, from 2012-2023, the program’s signal-callers threw for 300+ yards three fewer times (8) than Lindley did in his sophomore, junior, and senior campaigns. 

Athletic Director JD Wicker chose Lewis because of his history as an offensive innovator who would continue SDSU’s excellence as a run-oriented team while adding the excitement of a modern passing game. The numbers support Wicker’s decision.

With Lewis as head coach from 2018-2022, Kent State competed in 55 games. In those, KSU had 40+ passing attempts just eight times. Half of those eight occurred in Lewis’ first five games at Kent. 

Despite not throwing the ball an inordinate amount, the Golden Flashes still surpassed 300 yards 15 times, 250 yards in 21 contests, and reached 200 on 32 occasions.  

As the offensive coordinator of Colorado last year, Lewis called plays during the Buffalos’ first eight games. They surpassed 40 attempts in seven contests and exceeded 300 yards in five.

Among the plethora of roster decisions facing Lewis and his staff in Fall Camp, the most important is what they decide to do at quarterback. If Wicker’s designs in bringing Lewis to The Mesa are to be realized in 2024, SDSU has to get the QB selection right. 

“It’s the biggest decision,” QB coach Matt Johnson said after practice on Friday. “It doesn’t matter if you’re talking about Pop Warner or the NFL. (The) good teams most of the time, they have a good quarterback. I can only think of one or two teams in the history of the NFL or college football that just relied on their defense.” 

“Everybody needs the right triggerman out there, so we’re not going to rush into this decision. Everything is going to be taken into account that way the team can look at us and they know that guy that’s going to be behind center, he was the right man because he earned it.”

Who is left in the competition?

Throughout the offseason, AJ Duffy and Danny O’Neil have been the frontrunners to win the QB battle. During the practice periods the media was allowed to attend, the QBs Lewis brought in lined up almost exclusively with the first team and were given more practice reps than the holdovers, Kyle Crum and Javance Tupouata-Johnson. This disparity in opportunity was also evident during the Aztec Fast Showcase.

Despite the uneven time in practice, the four QBs were told the competition was open for all of them to win as they left for the summer. Lewis echoed that sentiment to the media during his last final press conference in April. 

“The room, in general, we always are competing,” true freshman Danny O’Neil said after Friday’s practice. “… We got really close in the winter and in spring. We just all have really good friendships. We’re always hanging out with each other so you want what’s best for them.”

When asked about the competition following Thursday’s practice, Lewis spoke only about two QBs, implying that SDSU was down to two signal callers. On Friday afternoon, Johnson gave an update that the competition remains open.

“Yes, absolutely,” Johnson said when asked if all the scholarship athletes have a chance to win the starting job. “There has been no decision made.”

Summer Workouts

Mirroring our technique-dominated society, player development occurs on a predictable schedule. Due to the rigors of the season, players lose strength and weight during the fall. Winter conditioning is designed to recoup those losses and build more muscle. Spring Camp is for installing the playbook. Summer workouts help players increase their athleticism and endurance. 

Armed with the knowledge learned in spring, the players work to master their craft, mostly away from the eyes of the coaches. This summer, the QBs led 7-on-7 and other passing drills. Johnson said the QBs’ growth has been apparent over the first two days of Fall Camp.

“A huge difference, yes” Johnson replied when asked if there was a noticeable change in the QBs’ play at the end of spring to where it is now. “That’s part of the ownership that they take on in the summertime, knowing that we’re not going to be there. I told them, ‘Day one of Fall Camp, I’ll be able to tell if you guys put the work in in the summertime.’ And, I think that they have.”

Time is of the Essence

At Tuesday’s press conference, Lewis emphasized the tension between naming a QB early to allow him to get the needed reps in practice and taking more time to ensure SDSU made the right decision. With a pair of practices already in the books, time is of the essence.

“I’m just out here working every day,” O’Neil explained. “Whoever gets named, they’re going to earn it. They’re going to deserve it. Whoever puts in the work is who is going to get it.”

The four players vying to lead SDSU in 2024 have similar attributes. Their dual-threat capabilities should allow everyone to develop around them no matter who is receiving snaps in practice. The group’s competence has allowed the competition to play out without hurting their teammates.

The time to make a decision is quickly. It is hard to imagine the competition dragging on too much beyond Fan Fest on August 10. On Friday, Johnson gave the company line that they would like to wrap it up as soon as possible but did not commit to a timeline. He said getting through the upcoming scrimmages would be key to the process. 

“Everybody’s been getting team reps, live reps, and it’s all full speed,” Johnson said. Even the 7-on-7 stuff is full-go, so everybody is going to be able to get reps because we need that tape to evaluate and make a proper decision.”

Getting the Decision Right

No matter who the staff selects, the QB position is among the most volatile and injury-prone. A sign of a great season for SDSU would be having one signal caller take all of the competitive snaps. Health, as much as skill, will determine if that reality occurs.

Solidifying confidence in Lewis’ system will be crucial if the Aztecs are to make a run at the conference title this year. While outside expectations suggest SDSU will not be close to the top of the standings, the program’s stature compared to its Mountain West counterparts leaves it as a legitimate goal for the season. Two September wins against Oregon State, Cal, or Central Michigan, added to the expected victory over Texas A&M-Commerce, will reshape the conference race.

The Aztecs will likely be underdogs against all their FBS non-conference opponents. If the expected occurs and they enter Mountain West play 1-3, how will they respond? 

They showed heart and character the past two years, rebounding from poor beginnings to the season, but that was under a coach they worked with through Covid to win 12 games in 2021.    

Having to revisit the QB decision due to poor play could torpedo the season. Getting it right could keep the momentum built in the offseason going all year. 

Paul Garrison

My earliest sport’s memory involve tailgating at the Murph, running down the circular exit ramps, and seeing the Padres, Chargers and Aztecs play. As a second generation Aztec, I am passionate about all things SDSU. Other interests include raising my four children, being a great husband and teaching high school.