Jackson Merrill is back: Behind his midseason surge for the Padres

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It was safe to say that the Padres’ offense was severely underperforming in the first half of the season.

Pre All-Star Break, the Padres’ team offensive statistics ranked among the worst in baseball. They ranked 30th in hits, OBP, and OPS. The team went into the All-Star break with a record of 48-48, and if they wanted any shot of being a playoff team, the stars would need to star, including third-year center fielder Jackson Merrill.

In Merrill’s first half from Opening Day to the last game before the All-Star break, the 23 year-old had only 10 home runs, for an average of .219 and OPS of .628. This was not the same Jackson Merrill that the Padres were getting in 2024 with a .823 OPS and even in 2025 with a .774 OPS. The stellar defense was still there, and his base running ability was back and better, but his bat was not.

The break that changed it all

From the All-Star Break on, something has changed for Merrill. In an article from Dennis Lin with The Athletic, Merrill mentioned that he was recently watching videos of his younger self as a teen. He said “screw it” and swung like that during the next game and he homered twice that game. Maybe all it takes sometimes is to go back to the mechanics and forms that you know best. In that game, the Padres won 19-2 in Kansas City and picked up their first win of the second half. This marked a fresh start for Merrill and a Padres team that desperately needed some sort of spark to get them back on track offensively.

The Padres are 16-7 since this game and are 15-4 in their last 19 games. The team’s success can be deeply attributed to Merrill’s brilliant stretch that he’s on. In 26 games after the All-Star Break, Merrill has hit nine homers and is slashing .343/.355/.676, good for an OPS of 1.031. Merrill just had a stretch of hitting home runs in back-to-back-to-back games, including this go-ahead blast that gave them the late advantage against the Brewers.

Swing breakdown

Former MLB Player and Team USA Manager Mark DeRosa did a fantastic job in analyzing Merrill’s swing change from the start of the year to now. Merrill’s stance in August, in comparison to May, is more crouched and spread apart. This change could play a part in the drop in K% from earlier in the season to now.

Pre All-Star break, Merrill’s K% was at 27.2%, but here in the second half of the season, it’s dropped to 20.6%. Yes, it is a much smaller sample size, but it is worth noting, as the strikeouts have been a major issue for Merrill in 2026. With a 2026 K% of 23.8, it ranks in the 36% of MLB players.

Pitchers were abusing the top of the zone to Merrill, as it’s an area of the zone that he has trouble with. Merrill owns a .192 average in the upper and outside corner, and a .143 average in the up and in corner of the zone. Here are two examples of improvements by Merrill. Both of these homers were in back-to-back games, and they were both of fastballs up and in to him. The simple adjustment of tweaking his stance looks to be helping Merrill see and get better swings off on the pitches that are in the upper third of the zone.

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Finding a home in the lineup

Manager Craig Stammen has not been shy to switch up the lineup during his first year as the skipper of the San Diego Padres. With the offense scuffling for most of the season, this forced him to put guys in different places in the order that they may not feel comfortable or used to. The only spot in the order that Merrill boasts an OPS above .750 is the fifth spot. When batting fifth in the order this season, Merrill has posted an elite OPS of .973 while driving in 26 of his 63 RBIs. During this hot stretch that the team has been on, Merrill has seemed to find a home in the fifth spot in the order, batting behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Rengifo/Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado and Ty France. Having this type of production from your fifth hitter does wonders for deepening the lineup and lengthening the rest of the order.

Merrill’s outlook on 2026

Jackson Merrill started the season rough, but his July resurgence has flipped the Padres’ season, as well as his own. With an OPS of .967 in his last 30 games, Merrill has given the Padres the much-needed spark that the lineup has been starving for all season long. Powered by Merrill’s red-hot bat, the Padres are tied for the best OPS in MLB since the All-Star Break with .805, and have pushed their record to 65-57. If the Padres want to keep their winning ways during the last month and a half of the regular season, Merrill will continue to be a centerpiece of their push for a postseason spot.

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