It is Major League Baseball trade season. The deadline for trades is July 30 this season.

The San Diego Padres will be active. You can be assured of that fact.

But how active is anyone’s guess?

A.J. Preller is entering his favorite time of the season, and you know he is chomping at the bit to tinker with the Padres’ 40-man roster once again. The current major league team is playing decently, as they stand one game over the .500 mark and one game back from the last N.L. Wild Card spot. Things could be better, but with the litany of injuries that have gripped the team, they are battling and showing way more composure than the 2023 squad.

Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove were both expected to carry a heavy load in the rotation for the 2024 season, but each has battled injuries. Darvish is currently away from the team attending to a personal matter, making things even more complicated. This duo is sorely missed, and with Michael King and Matt Waldron approaching their most innings ever thrown in a full season, there is reason to be concerned.

The Padres need pitching, and thankfully, the farm system still has players who are coveted if made available.

But is it really time to make a major trade, or should the Padres be conservative this trading season?

Unload the farm system for a controllable young pitcher

The two biggest names out there are Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. Skubal is 27 and 10-3 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.879 WHIP. He has struck out 140 batters in 116 innings pitched. Crotchet is 25 and 6-6 this season with a 3.02 ERA and a 0.950 WHIP in 107.1 innings pitched. Crotchet leads the American League right now in strikeouts with 150. Both pitchers are showing top-of-the-order stuff and are young.

Each southpaw made the MLB All-Star team this season for the first time, and both are said to be available. Skubal and Crotchet are both under control through the 2026 season, so you are looking at 2 1/2 years of service time for pitchers who are emerging. Chicago and Detroit want players who are close to contributing, and they demand top-100 prospects in all of baseball.

Some are saying both teams expect to obtain close to what the Nationals got for Juan Soto, but these are pitchers who emerged this season, not an everyday player who was already being discussed as one of the best players in the game’s history. Soto’s asking price was enormous, and rightfully so. One would not expect anything close to that for these two pitchers. However, a bidding war could emerge as the Padres are not the only suitors.

The Padres are built to win now, and if it means dealing players who are years away from major league service time, then you do it. At this point, A.J. Preller’s job could very well be on the line, depending on the success of the 2024 season. Pay the price and enjoy the rewards now. If it costs two or three of the team’s top prospects, then do it. The goal is to win now.

No, try to find lower-cost talent and keep building the farm

Skubal and Crochet are amazing young players, but they both come with risk. Paying a huge price for a pitcher who is not a veteran is a concern. Both pitchers could emerge and become perennial Cy Young Award winners, but the track record of deals like this favors the team trading the pitcher while their value is at its highest. That’s just the brutal truth.

At this point, the Padres are not guaranteed success in the 2024 season. The team’s inconsistencies are still evident. Adding a starting pitcher may help, but who is to say that is the missing piece that will result in wins? The Padres would pay an exorbitant price to obtain either pitcher, a cost that will surely affect them in 2025 and beyond.

Another factor is that each pitcher is approaching their record amount of innings thrown for a season. Do you honestly expect them to retain their current success? Again, it is possible. But baseball is all about averages and returning to norms. The smart money says each pitcher will slow down in production as the end of the season nears. It’s just natural. To expect them to produce at this rate in the playoffs is not intelligent.

The Verdict

In the end, it will come down to cost.

If the White Sox or Tigers are satisfied with a prospect haul the Padres are willing to part with, then go for it.

If either team wants Ethan Salas or Leodalis De Vries, then you need to walk away. The cost of obtaining a young, controllable pitcher isn’t cheap, but you cannot deal teenage talent who are guaranteed to, at the very least, be major league contributors one day. De Vries and Salas have tremendous upside, but their floor is a major-league backup (and that is their lowest expectation). That is a pretty bold statement, but both already show intangibles that cannot be taught.

If the Padres can obtain either left-handed pitcher for a package of hand-picked (by the Padres) prospects, then it is something to consider. The Padres used their first two selection in the 2024 draft on left-handed pitchers out of high school with upside. It is feasible that the Padres could deal some of their prospect arms to finish off a trade with the Sox or Tigers. Anything can happen when you are talking about the Padres and A.J. Preller.

James Clark

James was born and raised in America’s Finest City. He is a passionate baseball fan with even more passion towards his hometown Padres. Editor-In-Chief of EastVillageTimes.com. Always striving to bring you the highest quality in San Diego Sports News. Original content, with original ideas, that’s our motto. Enjoy.