First Half Struggles

As the San Diego Padres enter the final stretch heading into September, we are now in a position to look at what a potential playoff rotation would look like.

Aided by a hot August, figuratively and literally, the Padres have won eight of their last 11 and 13 of their last 20 games. That puts them in the final playoff N.L. Wild Card spot as of August 20.

The bats caught fire and have been a massive part of their recent success, posting an MLB-best .272 batting average as a team. Deadline additions Casey Mize and Robbie Ray helped stabilize what has been an otherwise fickle starting rotation. While both Mize and Ray struggled significantly in their Friar debuts, each of them bounced back strongly in their next starts. Casey Mize, the 29-year-old from Springville, Alabama, has looked especially impressive, posting six shutout innings in his start against the Guardians.

Help Arrives

Mize and Ray joined a thin Padres starting rotation that was in dire need of some fresh arms.

With the Padres’ top four aces, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Nick Pivetta, all struggling or out indefinitely with injuries, general manager A.J. Preller was forced to make splashes at the deadline, and he did not disappoint.

While Preller found bodies to fill in innings and put together wins this season with all the injuries to the starting rotation, it has not been pretty. Right-hander Walker Buehler has looked much better in his last few starts. He had a terrible start to the year, and still posts a near 5.00 ERA on the season. He was averaging less than five innings pitched per outing.

Additionally, the Griffin Canning and JP Sears experiments have been anything but a success, with the former posting a 6.50 ERA in 21 appearances and the latter being optioned to Triple-A El Paso.

More Help Incoming

Despite one of the weaker rotations in the league for much of the year, manager Craig Stammen has kept the Padres in contention.

And more help is on the way. “Java” Joe Musgrove is poised to make his return before the season ends, hitting 97 mph with his fastball in a rehab start in El Paso back on August 14. Musgrove could rejoin the big-league club shortly. He has not pitched in the majors since his playoff appearance against the Braves at Petco Park in October 2024.

Moreover, Nick Pivetta, who posted a career-best 2.87 ERA in 2025 and quickly looked to be becoming a top rotation piece, has been on the IL since mid-April with an elbow issue. He, like Musgrove, made his initial rehab appearance for Lake Elsinore, but exited after just 14 pitches. The timeline for his recovery has been less clear since then, but it is possible he will return before the end of the season.

Heading into a potential three-game wild-card series, the Padres would obviously need to call upon their top three starters. While Michael King would be a sure-fire bet to start game one at this point, it becomes less clear after that.

Casey Mize would likely make the most sense to start game two at this point, but there is an argument that Robbie Ray gets the nod. What certainly won’t help Ray’s case is his postseason ERA of 7.43 across six appearances in his career. On the contrary, in limited time with Detroit, Casey Mize looked great in the ppostseason Should there be a game three, it would seem Joe Musgrove could be available, but then again, Robbie Ray could get the start if he has a strong September.

Past the wild card, as things stand, with the additions of Mize and Ray and the return of Musgrove, the Padres could walk out a full five-man rotation for the playoffs.

This, of course, is if Ray continues to shove, and Musgrove comes back strong and ready to go.

Suddenly, what was once San Diego’s biggest weakness no longer looks like one at all.

Billy Seidlitz

Billy has spent a majority of his life following San Diego sports and worked in San Diego for many years. Now residing in Newport Beach he recently obtained his Juris Doctorate degree from Chapman University and now works as an Associate Personal Injury Attorney. Billy enjoys supporting the Padres and SDFC from Orange County and making the drive down for big games. He is passionate about analytics and writing about sports.