Was this the final year of the Padres’ World Series “window”?
Credit: Yahoo Sports
The Padres are fresh off a brutal 2026 National League Divisional Series exit at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers.
All four games were well within reach, yet the Padres dropped three, each somehow decided by just a few feet. The pressure to bring home San Diego’s first World Series title has never been higher, and a few core stars are beginning to show the inevitable signs of aging.
It begs a very fair question: Was this the Padres’ last true chance at a World Series?
The answer to that question is truly the litmus test for whether one sees the world as a glass half-full or half-empty.
On one hand, you do, in fact, have an aging core set of players. Manny Machado still has the power and defensive prowess that define him, but the lack of success against velocity and higher-caliber pitching is concerning. Xander Bogaerts has shown some signs of life with his new split-hand grip, but the overarching trends on both sides of the ball (and the health status of his wrist) are alarming, given he is guaranteed another seven years on his contract. Jake Cronenworth is slowly becoming more replaceable, Ty France is unlikely to re-sign (let alone repeat his results from this year), and there is not a single guaranteed rotation arm set to return next year.
Not to mention they have almost no players in the farm system who are ready to come up and make an immediate impact next year, a payroll that is likely to only increase in 2027 without even re-signing or adding a free agent, the looming MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, and a new ownership group that is a complete wildcard. There is certainly reason to be wary about this team’s future.
The counterpoint? You have a core of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Ethan Salas, and Mason Miller all on team-friendly deals. There are very few teams with that kind of talent to lead their roster. Tatis Jr. and Merrill both found their stroke in the second half, Salas impressed given his age, and Mason Miller still throws 104 with a wipeout slider. There are other contributors under team control as well, including Bradgley Rodriguez, Gavin Sheets, Luis Campusano, Jeremiah Estrada, and David Morgan.
AJ Preller is certainly an asset too. As with all General Managers, he has his share of misses, but he has continually proven his ability to find true MLB talent on the fringes of baseball to fill in the remaining gaps with minimal budget flexibility. He has also gotten the most each and every year out of a seemingly “empty” farm system that always has top-end talent by the time teams are shopping for it every July. There will definitely be enough talent, at least on paper, to compete in San Diego for the foreseeable future.
While the core of the team is generally considered the positional player side, the rotation arms are the biggest potential driver in determining the Padres’ immediate future. Consider these two possible scenarios:
Best case scenario:
- Michael King opts into his $25 million deal.
- Nick Pivetta’s team option for about $14 million AAV over the next two years is picked up.
- Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish come back healthy in 2027 and can start, even if some regression takes place.
- A farm pitcher or current reliever steps up and becomes a serviceable starter (Bryan Hoeing, Mason Miller, etc.)
Worst case scenario:
- King opts out and signs elsewhere.
- Pivetta gets hurt or is let go due to injury risk.
- Darvish and Musgrove cannot make it back.
- The Padres end up relying on reclamation projects without a true ace.
All of these are very real possibilities that the Padres face this offseason. The true result is likely a mix of both, but either way, the Padres’ championship chances may hang in the balance. King and Pivetta have both proven they can be top-of-the-line arms and even elevate themselves in the postseason. Darvish did not look his age in his most recent 2025 campaign, and Musgrove’s stuff is in line with his career bests in his recent return. Each one also has huge questions surrounding their age, health, or contract status (if not a mix of all three). However, with no young minor league arms to reliably turn to, the Padres will have to look to keep their current pitching core together above all else.
San Diego has outperformed the consensus preseason expectations three years in a row now, regardless of their playoff success (or lack thereof). Even without stellar performances from their highest-paid players, a rookie manager, and a non-existent rotation, they still won 91 games and a playoff series in 2026. There are plenty of reasons to have both hope and doubt, but there is still just too much talent on this San Diego Padres roster in the coming years to ever say the proverbial World Series “window” is fully shut.
Jacob grew up with Padres season tickets and walls plastered with Khalil Greene memorabilia. He has dedicated all of his young professional career towards becoming baseball’s next AJ Preller, having already worked with minor league and college teams in different roles. He is always scouring the Baseball Savant page to find the next little nugget that might help his hometown Padres (or his fantasy baseball team).