The San Diego Padres are rumored to be looking to move some of their arbitration-eligible players this offseason. Should the team look to move Dylan Cease, who may be in the hunt?

With the pitching market being the rapidly inflating powder keg it is, the Padres would be wise in considering trading starter Dylan Cease.

He finished 2023 with a 3.10 FIP in 33 starts and a strikeout rate just south of 30% at 29.4%; Cease is statistically more valuable than most of the free-agent starters available on the market.

While the Padres’ pitching depth was heavily tested during the season, Cease was a constant in the Padres’ rotation en route to the team’s playoff run. It has been rumored that the team is shopping his services, and there are several teams who could use a pitcher like Cease.

For this analysis, serious consideration will only be given to teams whose needs and possible return line up with the Padres’ needs. 

Fits like a Glove

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles have gone from AL East favorites to getting caught up in the arms race. With the Yankees signing Max Fried and the Red Sox trading for Garrett Crochet, the Orioles could use a true ace if the rumors of the Blue Jays courting Corbin Burnes are indeed true. Pair that with the fact that Orioles GM Mike Elias is reportedly gung ho on building a team from the ground up as opposed to through free agency, which means he’ll likely look on the trade market. 

Logistically speaking, Baltimore and San Diego line up quite well for a trade. Baltimore has a multitude of young outfielders under affordable team control at both the major and minor league levels, from AL Rookie of the Year runner-up Colton Cowser to former first-rounder Heston Kjerstad at the MLB level to talented youngsters in Jud Fabian and Dylan Beavers. Baltimore also has several young pitchers who the Padres could look to add in a deal. San Diego scouts must have some familiarity with the Baltimore farm as the team recently added Juan Nunez through the Rule 5 draft, who was ranked in the O’s Top 10 prospects by MLB Pipeline. 

For this analysis, considering the Padres’ needs on the MLB roster, a deal between the teams could shape up as follows:

Baltimore Acquires – RHP Dylan Cease

San Diego Acquires – OF Dylan Beavers (BAL No. 6 Prospect), RHP Trace Bright (BAL No. 11 Prospect), OF Austin Overn (2024 3rd Rd.)

San Diego is clearly looking for an outfielder, but with Tirso Ornelas on the cusp of making the big league roster, it is possible that the Padres aim for a top outfield prospect as opposed to someone like Heston Kjerstad, who isn’t the sparkliest defender in the outfield and profiles more as a first baseman/left field platoon option.

Acquiring a top prospect in Dylan Beavers could give the Padres some more upside in a depth option, as Beavers is only 23 with a more well-rounded set of tools compared to Kjerstad. Beavers is a player who drew comparisons to Christian Yelich coming out of college, and he has the speed and arm to play Gold Glove-caliber left field since nobody is taking Jackson Merrill out of center field in San Diego. Beavers’ patient approach at the plate cancels out some of the swing-and-miss issues he has faced in the high minor league levels, and he could be an option for the team as soon as 2025. Beavers is also blocked as a player in Baltimore with a starting outfield of Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, and Cedric Mullins. 

San Diego would also receive outfielder Austin Overn in this trade, who garnered a 75-grade speed coming out of the 2024 Draft. Overn was described by scouts as “the type of table-setter that’s hard to come by”, as his speed isn’t his only tool, as he also has some raw power and strong contact skills that could allow his ceiling to be that of a leadoff-caliber starting outfielder with above-average range and IQ in the outfield.

The Padres would also receive a pitcher, Orioles’ No. 11 prospect Trace Bright, in this deal. Taken out of Auburn in the 2022 Draft, Bright has flashed strong strikeout potential in his three minor league seasons. An above-average fastball and curveball have allowed Bright to rack up a 28.3% strikeout rate in his two full seasons from 2023-24, but he has also walked 12.3% of opposing batters. Improving his slider and changeup’s spin rates and movement profiles could allow Bright to make it to the Majors by the end of 2025, and San Diego has the infrastructure to make such an improvement. 

Could Work, but It’s a Stretch

The Athletics

Even after making a trade for Jeffrey Springs and signing Luis Severino, the Athletics could be looking to not only boost payroll but also make a run at a slightly more open AL West. With Houston dealing away Kyle Tucker and Seattle looking to shed salary to sign bats, the A’s would be smart to add to their rotation. As a matter of fact, A’s general manager, David Forst, has mentioned the team wouldn’t rule out adding another starting pitcher. Cease fits the bill, and a trio of Cease, Severino, and Springs headlining a rotation could be a strong top of the rotation. 

The Athletics have an interesting farm system, as due to their high drafting in recent years, the team has amassed a multitude of promising prospects, but their farm is heaviest on infield talents. Despite this, the A’s top outfield and pitching prospects would be of intrigue for Padres staffer,s considering their proximity to the MLB level and intangibles. While this fit is something of a stretch, a trade between these two teams could look as follows:

Athletics Acquire – RHP Dylan Cease

Padres Acquire – OF JJ Bleday, RHP Jack Perkins (ATH No. 18 Prospect), C Shane McGuire

In this deal, the Athletics’ abundance of young options in the outfield allows them to make this deal work. While three of the A’s top 10 prospects are near-MLB-ready outfielders, this leaves a possibility for the A’s to move one of their starting outfield options in JJ Bleday. The Athletics have been reluctant to move Brent Rooker and with a Lawrence Butler breakout in 2024,

Bleday could be someone the A’s look to move. Bleday has steadily improved over his three seasons of Major League experience, and in 2024 saw everyday playing time. Bleday walked in 10% of his plate appearances against a 19.5% strikeout rate, producing strong batted ball metrics. He slugged .437 as well, leading to a 120 wRC+ on an Athletics team that is mired in a rebuild. While Bleday’s range in the outfield is below average, his arm is in the top 20% of the league, which would pair well with Petco Park’s dimensions if he plays left field. Bleday also has some ability to play all three outfield positions, which could help as injury insurance in case the Padres face a rash of injuries like in 2024.

The A’s would also be sending their No. 18 prospect to San Diego in right-hander Jack Perkins. Perkins would have made his MLB debut in 2024 had it not been for a lat strain in Spring Training, costing him nearly half the season. Perkins showed vast improvements in 2024, gaining more confidence in his slider and changeup as the season went on, while his fastball continues to sit in the mid-90s with a low-90s cutter that gives batters another wrinkle to worry about.

Catcher Shane McGuire would be the final piece of the return for San Diego. The former USD product has been a solid offensive producer behind the plate over the last two seasons for the A’s Double-A affiliate, posting a 106 wRC+ in 2024 with a 15.2% walk rate against a 17.5% strikeout rate. McGuire could be a depth-catching option for the Padres down the road while serving as something of a mentor figure to young Padres minor leaguers. 

Detroit Tigers

Detroit is an odd choice for a trade partner in this scenario, as the Tigers have plenty of starting pitching in the upper minors. However, this is also a team that paid Alex Cobb $15 million and is coming off their first playoff run in a decade. The Tigers could look for a more experienced option to pair with Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal. Cease could not only be the perfect complimentary option, but he also has plenty of experience in the American League Central from his time with the White Sox. However, Detroit’s interest in adding starting pitching after signing Cobb remains unknown. 

If the Tigers were to pursue a trade for the right-hander, the team’s farm system and up-and-coming young players are a match in terms of the Padres’ pitching needs. However, when trying to fix the Padres’ outfield situation, Detroit might not have an immediate solution, but the Tigers have the prospects the Padres could use to make a subsequent trade. While these teams aren’t the perfect trade match, here is how a trade could shape up:

Tigers Acquire – RHP Dylan Cease

Padres Acquire – RHP Troy Melton (DET No. 11 Prospect), OF Justice Bigbie (DET No. 21 Prospect), IF Franyerber Montilla (ACL), IF Maikol Orozco (DSL)

The Tigers have one of the stronger farm systems in MLB, and they would deal from their pitching surplus to make this deal happen. The headliner would be Tigers’ No. 11 prospect and Aztec for Life Troy Melton. The right-hander made it to Double-A Erie last season, and while his 5.10 ERA was underwhelming, Melton had a 4.42 FIP & 3.14 xFIP in 100.2 innings. His season was bogged down by a sky-high .342 BABIP and 20% HR/FB rate, all of which are career-worst marks.

However, it wasn’t all doom and gloom, as Melton continued to show progress in his development, striking out 27.7% of opposing batters against a tidy 7% walk rate. Melton has a well-rounded and thorough pitch mix to neutralize batters from both sides of the plate, and if he can overcome the fly-ball issues he faced at Double-A, he could become a strong mid-rotation caliber starter with the potential of reaching the Majors in 2025 or 2026.

Also, from the Tigers’ top 30 (according to MLB Pipeline) comes outfielder Justice Bigbie. Bigbie has a noted ability to hit to the opposite field, especially putting the ball in the air to right field as a right-handed hitter, which could be a strength at Petco Park with the porch in right field. Bigbie has drawn comparisons to Kerry Carpenter as a slugging corner outfielder with a similar build and saw plenty of action in right and left field with the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate. Bigbie has raw power that he can use, but he would need to improve his launch angle to significantly reduce his 55.6% groundball rate from 2024 to have consistent success at the plate.

Also coming to San Diego are two young infield prospects in, Franyerber Montilla & Maikol Orozco, both of whom put up above-average numbers at their respective rookie league levels. Montilla and Orozco, both 19, could present the Padres with another crop of talented infielders who fit the mold of A.J. Preller international signees (talented middle infielders with projectable offensive tools). The Padres’ A-Ball and High-A teams have an incoming wave of talent from the 2024 Draft, like Jack Costello, Brandon Butterworth, and more, so adding in more talent could provide San Diego’s system with replenished depth and further prospect capital for possible future moves.  

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays face a crossroads, as they appear to want to be a playoff contender after finishing with a lowly 74 wins last season. The team got promising returns in their trade of Yusei Kikuchi, and with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr approaching free agency, the Blue Jays could look to add rather than sell. With a pitching rotation headlined by Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios, the Blue Jays have been rumored to look to move Yariel Rodriguez to the bullpen to get the most out of his live arm. Adding Dylan Cease would be a solid option should the Jays fall short in their pursuit of Corbin Burnes. 

The Blue Jays have one of the more puzzling farm systems in baseball, as their top outfield prospects are at least a season or two away from the Majors, and some of their more talented arms have plenty of question marks regarding injuries (for instance, Adam Macko and Ricky Tiedemann). Therefore, there would be a lot of thought that would go into any potential trade between these two teams, but should the stars align, a possible deal could look like this:

Blue Jays Acquire – RHP Dylan Cease

Padres Acquire – OF Alan Roden (TOR No. 12 Prospect), UT Davis Schneider,  RHP Fernando Perez (TOR No. 10 Prospect), RHP Erik Swanson

The real prize for the Padres in this trade is Roden, Toronto’s No. 12 prospect and one of the most slept-on outfield prospects in baseball. Roden is a strong left-handed hitter who refuses to strike out, having never posted a strikeout rate north of 15.3% in his minor league career. He also has a keen eye at the plate, consistently posting double-digit walk rates in the minor leagues (12.2% walk rate last season at Triple-A). Roden uses an upright stance and leg kick to generate pull-side power, and grades out as a very high-IQ baserunner despite average speed. Defensively, he is an average outfielder with average range and arm strength, but his bat more than makes up for any defensive shortcomings. 

Also coming to San Diego would be Davis Schneider. The 25-year-old Schneider looked to be a building block for Toronto after an insane second half to the 2023 season in which he helped the Blue Jays reach the postseason, but his 2024 was an outright disaster. Schneider was unable to maintain even league-average production. With Toronto acquiring Will Wagner in the Yusei Kikuchi trade, Schneider could be obsolete on the roster. The issue with assessing Schneider as a player is that he has shown his absolute best at worst at the MLB level, as his 2023 was inflated by an elevated .369 BABIP while 2024 saw an incredibly low .257 BABIP (league average is between .290 – .300).  If Schneider could have a season in the middle of his 2023 & 2024 (near an .800 OPS), he could be a right-handed complimentary utility player with minor league options.

Toronto would also send reliever Erik Swanson to San Diego in the trade. Having re-signed Yimi Garcia and having Chad Green as their closer, Swanson could be a setup option for the Jays, but his 5.03 ERA last season might have them thinking differently for relief pitching. San Diego would be buying low on Swanson, putting more stock in his 2023 campaign and the relative affordability of his contract ($3 million for 2025). If Ruben Niebla and co. are able to revive Swanson’s once-elite splitter, the right-hander could be a high-upside addition should San Diego move a certain member of their relief corps, as has been rumored. 

The final piece in the deal is right-hander Fernando Perez, Toronto’s No. 10 prospect. Perez, who will be 21 by the start of the 2025 campaign, enjoyed a strong season at Single-A Dunedin on the heels of a breakout FCL season in 2023. Perez currently sits in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball and has an advanced feel for his offspeed and breaking pitches. Perez has the capacity to grow into a strong mid-rotation starter with impressive strikeout stuff as he continues to grow into his 6-foot-3 frame, and his mental acumen on the mound sets him up for success. Should both teams make this trade, Perez would make his way to High-A Fort Wayne, where he would be set to develop along the likes of Braden Nett and Jagger Haynes while throwing to top prospect Ethan Salas. 

There is a strong case for the Padres to trade Dylan Cease, and with A.J. Preller known for waiting for the right deal, which team will come calling is likely to be found sooner or later.

Diego Garcia

A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.

A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.