It’s been a fun first 10 days or so of MLB action to start the 2025 campaign.

Here are just a few of the early season headlines making the rounds.

Torpedo bats have become all the rage. By the way, it’s not cheating to take advantage of the existing rules. In fact, I wish it was the Padres who had made these bats the talk of baseball early on.

Former Friar Jurickson Profar was suspended for 80 games and is ineligible for the postseason due to a positive PED test. This makes one wonder about his later career breakout last year, but evidently, the veteran OF was tested several times during the season with no issues. Simply from a baseball perspective, it hurts the Braves, and that could benefit the Padres in their chase for a playoff spot.

Speaking of the Padres, they got off to a hot start, winning their first seven and sweeping the Braves and Cleveland Guardians in the process.

As of this writing, they had dropped the first two contests of their series in Chicago, but no one would have turned down a 7-2 record after nine games.

The bullpen has been brilliant. Fernando Tatis, Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill are leading the way offensively. Gavin Sheets has followed up his strong spring with an OPS+ of 187 through 22 plate appearances.

The shorthanded starting pitching staff, minus Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, has still given the team a chance most nights, with a couple of bumps in the proverbial road. Sadly, the Dodgers (9-2) and Giants (8-1) have been even better than San Diego to this point and are presently ahead in the standings. The NL West looks like it’s going to be a slaughterhouse. The Dodgers may be the runaway favorites to win the division, but the competition for second and NL Wild Card spots will be fierce.

There have been a few early-season contract extensions of note, including a nine-year pact for Jackson Merrill and the Padres that guarantees the 21-year-old OF $135 million. East Village Times colleague Armando Dueñas reported on the details before the ink on the contract was even dry.

Obviously, it’s an absolute steal for San Diego and a huge win to lock up a foundational piece at this stage of his career. Based on Fangraphs rough valuation of a win and loosely projecting some inflation, if Merril averages 2.5 – 3 WAR per season, the Padres will bank some surplus value. Merrill should be able to do that practically, just with his glove work, to say nothing about the bat.

Relevant to this post, however, is the six-year deal Boston awarded to a new left-handed ace, Garrett Crochet, worth $170 million in guaranteed money. The new agreement runs from 2026 through 2031. How does this potentially impact the Padres?

Crochet’s profile is similar to that of the Friars’ right-handed pitcher Michael King, who is scheduled to reach free agency following the 2025 season. Both hurlers had their long-awaited breakouts as starting pitchers in 2024. Here is how the two compared last season based on several key rate stats and Baseball Reference’s WAR:

Based on the above table, it’s easy to see the resemblance.

Crochet is left-handed and four years younger than the Friars righty, which would tend to make him more valuable. However, King is closer to free agency, which would narrow or even close that gap. It stands to reason Crochet’s new pact would represent, at best or worst if you’re the Padres, the floor for a Michael King extension. And, of course, should King make it to the winter unsigned, where all 30 clubs will have a chance to negotiate with his camp, chances are the price tag will go even higher.

So, what would it take to convince King to forego free agency and re-up in San Diego?

I suspect something in the neighborhood of five or six years and an average annual value of $30 million-plus. Maybe six years and $200 million in total, or five years with some kind of option for a sixth season that would bring the total value up to around $200 million.

Jim Bowden, a former senior VP and general manager for both the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, published a 2025 predictions piece just before opening day for the Athletic. In it, he makes two interesting Padre-related projections. One is that the club deals Dylan Cease to the Orioles at or near the trade deadline for IF Coby Mayo and LHP Cade Povich. Two, and the one pertaining to this article, is that King signs a five-year deal with the same Orioles in the winter totaling $182 million, an AAV of $36.4 million. Yikes.

The Merrill extension shows that this ownership group, under new control person John Seidler, is still willing to commit to nine-figure arrangements. However, Merrill may represent an exception in that he is a younger player just entering his prime, and the team is buying out pre-arbitration, arbitration, and at least four potential free-agent seasons. In this situation, there is a good chance that Merrill will outperform his extension by a significant margin, making this a tremendous bargain for the club.

With King, the team would be paying full market value, or at least close to it, for a pitcher just into his 30s. Preller is always willing to gamble on talent, and Peter Seidler always backed his GM up. But will John Seidler sign off on such a risk? That’s the million dollar question, or rather maybe it’s the $200 million question.

Glen Miller

Born and raised in Oceanside, I became a diehard Padres fan when my dad took me to my first MLB games at San Diego’s Jack Murphy Stadium all the way back in 1983. My first favorite player was Terry Kennedy, probably because like most kids I was impressed by the “tools of ignorance.” I’ve experienced a lot of ups and downs in my 40+ years of Friar Fandom, mostly lows, but I’m still cautiously optimistic I’ll live to see a World Championship. One day.