The Chiba Lotte Marines announced that they will be posting Roki Sasaki sometime this winter. A.J. Preller and Padres brass are all in on the 23-year-old phenom.

The San Diego Padres find themselves staring at a golden opportunity in the face.

One of the most talented pitchers on the planet will be making his Major League debut next spring.

The question engulfed in the minds of Padres officials and fans is whether he will be wearing brown and gold when he makes his highly-anticipated debut.

Roki Sasaki, one of the most electric and dominant pitchers the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization has ever seen, will be posted for Major League Baseball clubs to sign sometime this winter.

The Chiba Lotte Mariners announced that they will begin the process of posting pitcher Rōki Sasaki this winter, per @chibalotte pic.twitter.com/FZGVyZGsmr

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) November 9, 2024

The Stuff

Sasaki made his professional debut for the Chiba Lotte Marines of the NPB in 2021.

He went on to compile a career 29-15 individual record, with a 2.46 ERA and 505 K’s in 394.2 innings.  The right-handed pitcher also recorded a masterful 19-strikeout perfect game on April 10, 2022, against the Orix Buffaloes. At one point, striking out 13 consecutive batters in that game.

During the 2023 World Baseball Classic, as part of the eventual WBC Champion, Team Japan, Sasaki put his arsenal of pitches on display in front of US audiences for the first time. He possesses a three-pitch mix of a fastball, splitter, and slider. His lanky 6-foot-2 frame allows him to throw all three pitches with firm explosiveness from a 3/4 arm slot.

Fastball

He has the ability to throw his fastball for triple digits, sometimes reaching 102 mph.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Sasaki’s fastball has over 19 IVB ( induced vertical break) and 15 inches of horizontal movement. It generated a 24% whiff rate in 2022.

Splitter

Many have described Sasaki’s splitter to be his wipeout pitch. It’s often put up against Mets RHP Kodai Senga‘s ghost fork pitch. Sasaki’s splitter had a 51.5% whiff rate and 70.5% groundball rate in 2023. At one point, opponents were hitting a combined dreadful .101 batting average against the pitch.

Rōki Sasaki, 92mph Splitter and 102mph Fastball, Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/pSu8cvaW9n

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 5, 2024

Slider

Sasaki’s slider, a pitch that Yu Darvish helped him develop, sits at around 89 mph with an immense amount of late break to his glove side. It’s still a work in progress and needs to be utilized effectively for him to gain more confidence in throwing it in certain situations like he does with his splitter.

佐々木朗希　Nasty 145キロスライダー?

キレ十分の変化でバットを躱す地味にエグいスライダー pic.twitter.com/PM9tBVjUri

— tanaka13ver2024 (@tanaka13ver2021) June 4, 2023

The Fit

For the Padres, it certainly isn’t a pipe dream to land Roki Sasaki.

He won’t come expensive. Because of the rules set between MLB and the NPB’s posting system. Foreign-born players who are under the age of 25 and have not completed six years of NPB service time are subject to earning international pool money and a league minimum salary. Essentially a rookie contract.

Sasaki’s eagerness to pitch in the big leagues brings him just two years shy of completing six years of service time in Japan. From a financial standpoint, signing Sasaki wouldn’t significantly impact a San Diego payroll that lacks a bit of flexibility.

It was reported that Sasaki will prioritize stability, lifestyle, comfort, and a team’s history of player development. Any and all teams vying to sign him will need to pitch themselves very highly. An advantage the Friars might have in potentially signing him is Yu Darvish. Sasaki and Darvish developed a close relationship during the 2023 WBC.

Darvish also helped him develop his slider and would overall help Sasaki adjust to playing within Major League Baseball. Both Japanese players also share the same agent in Joel Wolfe.

“Yu Darvish commands about as much respect as any Japanese-born player in the modern era.”@JLEWFifty on why the #Padres would be a great fit for Roki Sasaki:#FightForTheFaithful
? https://t.co/fGPbvbjGlC pic.twitter.com/eUJxoW0ndw

— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) November 10, 2024

A second advantage the Padres carry into Sasaki’s free agency, is the tedious hard work of Padres GM A.J. Preller. He’s developed great relations among scouts and executives within the NPB and has even learned to speak Japanese fluently. Bringing in Japanese icon Hideo Nomo into the Padres front office and the addition of relief pitcher Yuki Matsui heading into the 2024 season would also help Sasaki assimilate into a new chapter in his career.

It is also noteworthy to mention that Preller builds friendships and bonds with his players. He’s not the stereotypical cold-hearted GM. On July 6, Yu Darvish placed himself on the restricted list due to a personal family matter. Preller, having built a relationship with Darvish since the pitcher’s high school days, handled the situation with care and grace. He received public appreciation from Darvish and his camp.

“I know that’s what Darvish was alluding to when he was talking to the media about A.J. being a true friend to him. He really meant it, that there were things that they could talk about that only A.J. would understand.” Joel Wolfe, Darvish’s agent, said to the media.

Ruben Niebla has been at the forefront of the resurgence of San Diego’s pitching development. He’s helped relievers-turned-starters such as Michael King and Seth Lugo find their footing in being everyday rotation pieces, helped Blake Snell win his second career Cy Young Award, and has helped veterans such as Darvish and Michael Wacha make adjustments that will help them age finely in the later years of their respective careers. Niebla could potentially help a young Sasaki develop into one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Nationally, the Los Angeles Dodgers are regarded as heavy favorites to sign Roki Sasaki for other obvious reasons. The additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have turned Japan into Dodger country and are coming off a World Series victory. Any scenario in which Sasaki lands in Dodger Blue will be a nightmare scenario for the Friars. With Joe Musgrove out the entirety of 2025 due to Tommy John surgery, San Diego must fill their rotation wisely.

Roki Sasaki will most certainly be one of the most coveted prizes of the offseason, and his decision will loom large whenever his posting becomes official. For the Padres, they can’t afford to let this one slip away. A starting rotation of Michael King, Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, and Roki Sasaki would be one of, if not the best rotation in the National League. Perhaps in all of baseball. The madness of the waiting game now commences.

Armando Dueñas Jr.

Armando Duenas is a 24 year-old aspiring journalist. He is a native San Diegan who grew up in the South Bay area. A lifelong Padres fan and baseball enthusiast, he resides just about fifteen minutes from PETCO Park, where his love of the game began.