Would the Padres really consider trading Fernando Tatis Jr?
Credit: USA Today Sports
In the heat of the 2024 winter meetings, the San Diego Padres are reportedly ‘listening’ to offers on their stars. Could Fernando Tatis Jr. be in trade talks ahead of the 2025 MLB season?
The Padres are 'listening' on their star players, per @JonHeyman pic.twitter.com/S9d0XYjwn4
— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) December 11, 2024
Before we go any further, it’s important to note that this is not to say that the Padres should trade Tatis Jr.
However, there are pros and cons associated with each route. First, let’s examine the 25-year-old’s history.
The Contract
Following a stellar 2019 rookie season and top-four MVP finish in the shortened 2020 campaign, the San Diego Padres and Tatis Jr. agreed to a 14-year, $340 million extension. This was before he had played 162 MLB games. They called it a “statue contract.”
In the first year of his new contract, Tatis Jr. did not disappoint. He led the National League with 42 round-trippers in 130 games.
However, chaos ensued in 2022.
Off-Field Drama and PEDs
For lack of a better term, Tatis Jr. was a “wild child” off the field in the earlier parts of his career. On the first day of 2022 MLB Spring Training, Padres fans received the worst news possible. Tatis Jr. arrived at camp with a broken wrist from a motorcycle accident in December 2021. When reporters asked the star when the accident had occurred, he responded, “Which one?”
As he neared his return to the Major League club in late August, Tatis Jr. tested positive for Clostebol, a performance-enhancing substance. This resulted in an 80-game suspension.
Now that we have some background let’s look at the pros and cons of moving Tatis Jr.
Please note that Tatis has a no-trade clause and would need to approve any deal.
Pros
Tatis Jr. is still a superstar. The slugger’s performance in the 2024 MLB postseason reminded baseball fans of his pre-2022 form. With this in mind, Tatis Jr.’s market value remains extremely high despite his differing numbers before and after the suspension, raising substantial alarms. He has put two solid seasons behind him without much noise off the field.
In 273 games before the suspension, Tatis Jr. cracked 81 home runs and posted a .965 OPS. In 243 games after, he has only connected on 46 big flies with a .796 OPS. Additionally, it’s easy to forget Tatis Jr. won a Platinum Glove in his first full year as a right fielder and continues to show stellar defense from the outfield.
Another potential upside of trading Tatis Jr. is that it would unload $20 million from the Padres’ 2025 payroll. Reports suggest that San Diego is determined to stay under the $241 million luxury tax threshold. They are also considering potential extensions for Michael King, Luis Arráez, and Jackson Merrill.
Lastly, a trade involving a player with as much value as Tatis Jr. would most likely bring both proven MLB talent and highly touted prospects back to San Diego. It could be similar to the Juan Soto trade with the Yankees. Perhaps even more so as Soto entered his “walk year” ahead of that trade.
The Padres received King and Kyle Higashioka from New York. Both former Yankees had excellent regular and postseason performances in 2024. Moreover, the 2023 Minor League pitching prospect of the year, Drew Thorpe, went to San Diego. He was eventually used as part of the Dylan Cease deal.
Cons
Because Tatis Jr. still shows flashes of his old self, trading him would risk moving a player who has one of the highest ceilings in the game. It seems as if El Niño is just one simple adjustment away from regaining his potential. That being laying off waste pitches and actually swinging at strikes.
Tatis Jr., like Manny Machado, struggles with the low and outside slider in right-on-right matchups. Pitchers have adjusted to Tatis Jr.’s eye and set up entire at-bats around this pitch with tunneling. If he can learn to hunt his pitch and abstain from swinging at non-competitive pitches, we might see the return of 2019-2021 Tatis Jr.
Perhaps the biggest downside of trading him would be the backlash from Padres fans. Tatis Jr. was the face of the 2020 team that brought the organization back into the spotlight and remains a fan favorite.
Despite all the drama and the PED suspension, fans will never forget watching Tatis Jr. launch homers left and right during the 2020 season that put the entire franchise on the map. It is important to note that his current contract situation is turning out to be a bargain if he lives up to his lofty expectations on the field.
Ultimately, trading Tatis Jr. would mean parting with a generational talent who still has the potential to recapture his superstar form. They run the risk of watching him become an MVP for somebody else. While the idea of a trade stirs debate, it’s hard to imagine the Padres letting go of a player who remains such a cornerstone of their identity and fan favorite.
A San Diegan born and raised, Max Schwartzberg is a diehard Padres fan who created and hosts the YouTube channel Padres Previews, a hub where he passionately delivers Padres news, updates, reactions, and hype videos. At Northeastern, Max broadcasts and writes for baseball, basketball, and hockey. Max dreams of following in the steps of Padres broadcaster and Northeastern alumnus Don Orsillo to become a Major League Baseball announcer.
The way I see it is if Tatis puts as much effort into batting practice as he does showboating he would be unstoppable.
If they trade away Luis Arráez it’ll be years before the Padres would ever return to the playoffs because of the Dodgers dominance. Not to mention Arráez said that he wants to help the Padres get a Championship not to mention him being another big fan favorite.
Maybe the Padres should either restructor the long term contracts to be similar to Ohtanhi or tell the guys, “If you are serious about winning maybe come off some of your money so we can afford help.” World Series wins equal more money js.