The Padres’ path to playoffs with one month to play

The Major League Baseball season is one month away from concluding. How can the Padres navigate through to get to October?

The Padres’ regular season ends on September 29. Entering Tuesday, the Padres have 29 games left. It’s officially the “sprint” part of the marathon. Scoreboard watching is in full effect. Right now, the Padres have the inside track to a playoff spot at the moment. San Diego is four games back of the NL West-leading Dodgers, one game back of the second place Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona occupies the top Wild Card spot by the same margin over the Padres. San Diego slots in as the second Wild Card team, three games up on the Braves, who have the lost spot. The Padres are six games ahead of the Mets, who are the first team out of the playoff picture at the moment.

FanGraphs gives the Padres a 96.4% chance at making the postseason. As of now, they even have the fifth-best odds to win the World Series, at 7.6%.

However, there is still work to do.

The Current Road Trip

First off, this is a big week for the Padres. The Cardinals still feel like they can snag a Wild Card spot, as they currently sit six games behind the Braves for the final slot. The two squads are in the middle of a four-game series in St. Louis. Even with the six-game cushion on a playoff spot, the Padres can ill-afford to take a nosedive on this road trip. After St. Louis, they face three more games against a scrappy Rays team that swept the Diamondbacks two weeks ago.

In those seven road games, the Padres need to go at worst, 4-3.

Catching the Diamondbacks

If there is one team that has been hotter than the Padres in the second half, it’s those darn Diamondbacks. In the last 30 games, the Padres are a fantastic 22-8. Unfortunately, Arizona is 24-6. Even if Arizona had played a solid 20-10 in that span, the Padres would be higher in the standings and occupy the top Wild Card spot. The Snakes just won’t go away.

Before the Padres can worry about catching the Dodgers in the NL West, they need to take care of Arizona. The top Wild Card spot could come down to the very last series of the regular season, when the two teams end the year playing a series in Arizona.

Even if the Padres don’t catch the D-backs, they are in good shape.

Root Against the Braves and Mets

It’s easy for baseball fans in Southern California to root against teams towards the east coast. These two NL East rivals look to be battling it out for possibly the last Wild Card spot. If both of these teams catch fire, the Padres will be sweating. There is only room for three Wild Card teams in each league, and the Diamondbacks don’t appear to be going anywhere. Luckily, the Mets didn’t gain any ground when they visited Petco Park last weekend, splitting the four games. The Mets are the only team outside of the playoff spots inside of five games back.

The Braves are extremely talented. They have spun their tires in the mud for a lot of the season, but they have the talent to catch fire at the drop of a hat. The Padres should not bank on them floundering down the stretch. Luckily, the Padres won the season series against Atlanta, therefore if there is a tie at the end of the season, the Padres would get the better seed by virtue of the tiebreaker.

Two Stars get Healthy and get Going

The Padres got positive updates about two of their most important players. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Yu Darvish look to be on their way back. Tatis hasn’t played since mid-June with a leg injury. Darvish had a groin strain before being put on the restricted list for a private matter. He hasn’t pitched for the Padres since May 29. Tatis is ramping up baseball activities eyeing a September return and Darvish pitched in a simulated game over the weekend.

Getting those two back and playing like they are capable of for the stretch run and possibly a postseason run would be one of the biggest injections of life any team could get this late in the year.

What Should the Goal Be? 

What win total should the Padres shoot for? Ever since the third Wild Card spot was implemented for the 2022 postseason, the lowest win total that got into the playoffs was last year when the Diamondbacks and Marlins both reached the postseason with 84 wins. Of course, we know what happened after, as Arizona made a run to the NL pennant and a World Series appearance. The Padres need to finish a paltry 10-20 to reach 84 wins. That might not get it done this season.

In 2022, the Phillies made the playoffs with 87 wins ahead of their own run to the World Series. The Padres need to go just 13-17 to achieve that total. If the Padres simply play .500 ball for the remainder of the season, that will give them 89 wins. That likely gives them a playoff spot. Simply one game above .500 the rest of the way gets them to 90 wins for just the fifth time in franchise history and first since 2010.

Their goal should be 90 wins to be safe in this hot playoff race.

Nick Lee

Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.