The San Diego Padres organization has a knack for helping relievers save their careers. Could this former Guardian be next on the docket?

It’s not an understatement to say that the San Diego Padres have helped plenty of relievers revive their careers in their history. Brad Hand, Fernando Rodney, Heath Bell, the list goes on. With the Padres constantly on the look for bullpen depth with high upside, a recently released name could, and quite frankly, should be on their radar. 

If you watched baseball in the 2020 season, you’re certainly familiar with the name James Karinchak.

The former 2017 9th-rounder came onto the scene in 2020, captivating Cleveland fans with his “Wild Thing” entrance and blistering fastball, and if a batter blinked, they’d miss his hard curveball with 46 inches of drop. That’s nearly four feet of drop on the hook. 2020 saw Karinchak post a 2.67 ERA with a much more inspiring 1.52 FIP, striking out an astonishing 48.6% of opposing batters. The walk rate was a high 14.7%, but Karinchak didn’t allow many hits, which negated the walks in a way. This led the right-hander to a sixth-place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting after the season. 

The subsequent season saw Karinchak regress, posting a 106 ERA+ in 55.1 innings. These troubles weren’t a result of a change in his delivery or arsenal, and many of his peripherals remained similar to 2020 (.176 BAA in 2021 vs .159 BAA in 2020 / 13.6% BB rate in 2021 vs 14.7% BB rate in 2020). The main reason for his struggles came down to his strikeout and home run rates. Karinchak’s 48.6% strikeout rate from 2020 was always going to be unsustainable, so seeing it drop to 33.2% wasn’t concerning. The biggest concern was the spike in his home run rate. Again, a 0.3 HR/9 rate was never going to hold up over a full season, but seeing it quintuple up to a 1.5 HR/9 innings was almost unimaginable. 

The 2022 season was a return to form, seeing Karinchak post a 2.29 FIP in 39 innings, with his walk rate at a career-low 13.1%. His strikeout rate went up to 38.8%, and he only allowed a home run on 1.3% of batted balls. He did miss the first half of the season because of a teres major strain, and while he continued to pitch well in 2023 based off his surface numbers (3.23 ERA), he was flirting with a FIP of 5.00 at 4.97. His 1.33 WHIP was a career-high, and his strikeout, walk, and home run rates all went in the wrong direction. Karinchak did not pitch in MLB in 2024, missing most of the season with a shoulder injury. 

So, with his stock at an all-time low, why should San Diego consider bringing him in?

Karinchak has never posted a subpar strikeout rate in his career, with a cumulative 36.3% strikeout rate across 165.2 MLB innings. His fastball has averaged 95 mph in his career, and his curveball has consistently been an above-average offering. There’s a reason Karinchak has been hard to hit against in his career, and it is plausible he has not fully unlocked his best game. 

On one hand, while his velocity and release point have made his fastball hard to hit, the pitch itself is lacking in movement. A rather straight fastball in the 94-97 range is not as hard to hit for MLB batters now as it was years ago, and this has led to his struggles with the long ball. If there’s something the Padres organization has at their disposal, it’s their pitching lab in Point Loma, which the team could use to aid the right-hander with adding some sort of vertical or horizontal break on his four-seam fastball should he come into the fold. 

Furthermore, the Padres staff has shown an ability to help pitchers better command the zone, as was seen with Tanner Scott in the second half of 2024. Karinchak’s career 14.1% walk rate is alarmingly high, and if the Padres can help him lower it to somewhere in the 8-10% range, it would be more manageable for both the right-hander and the team. 

As a flyball pitcher, Karinchak would make for a good fit at Petco Park, as it and Progressive Field have posted similar park factor numbers over the past three seasons. Petco’s marine layer in the early parts of the season and in the early autumn might help a pitcher like Karinchak avoid bloated home run rates. 

Should Karinchak sign with San Diego, should the team expect a 2020-esque season from him? No, but a year like 2022 (2.29 FIP, 38.8% K rate) would be welcomed. While he may not be the next Padre closer (or maybe he would be, who knows?), an electric arm like Karinchak in solid form would lengthen the bridge to Robert Suarez and undoubtedly help a team that won 60.9% of close games in 2024.

Diego Garcia

A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.

A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.