Robert Stock could be a low-risk depth add for Padres

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A.J. Preller and the San Diego front office are always looking on the margins for MLB-caliber depth.

The Padres organization has found ways to reinforce their pitching depth every offseason, be it through trades or minor league free agency.

Arms like Nabil Crismatt, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez fit the bill of this description, but there is one former Friar out on the market the team should consider extending a spring invite to. 

If you’ve been a reader or a Padre fan since the 2017-18 seasons, you’re probably familiar with the name Robert Stock.

Stock made his way to the Padres after time in the Cardinals and Pirates organizations, with some stops in independent leagues along the way. At the time, Stock sported a flaming fastball with the ability to hit triple digits, along with a wipeout slider that left batters fooled.

In his first Major League action, Stock was great for the 2018 Padres, posting a 2.50 ERA and 2.77 xERA in 39.2 innings with a Baseball Savant page buzzing with red. He didn’t get as many chases as someone with his velocity would, and that continued into 2019, where in 10 games with the big league club, he had a 10.13 ERA, WHIP of 2.06, and 14.3% walk rate. San Diego waived him after the season, and he went on to bounce around from the Phillies to the Red Sox to the Cubs and Mets. His last MLB appearance to date came with the Mets as an opener, going one inning against the Cincinnati Reds. 

Since then, Stock took his craft international, spending 2022 with Korea’s Doosan Bears, 2023 with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate and the independent Long Island Ducks, and 2024 in Mexico. His name has surfaced as of late thanks to his performance in the Mexican Winter League. Pitching for the Naranjeros de Hermosillo, Stock became the first Naranjeros pitcher to win the Triple Crown, leading the league in wins (10), ERA (1.60), and strikeouts (78).Credit: Naranjeros De Hermosillo

With these pristine numbers, there is an element of Stock’s game that is worthy of further analysis. Here is Stock in his first MLB game with San Diego:

And here he is with Hermosillo. 

Stock has clearly dropped his arm angle to a borderline sidearm delivery, and as a result, the amount of horizontal movement on his pitches is significantly higher than from a conventional three-quarter slot. This amount of movement is coming at an elevation of 626 feet above sea level.

Breaking pitches tend to move less at higher elevation due to the effect of gravity at the altitude not allowing the pitches to break as much. For Stock, his slider has shown impressive horizontal movement and bite at elevation from this arm slot, which raises intrigue about how it could function at sea level. The amount of movement he is getting at high altitude is intriguing, but another facet of his game is the velocity. Somehow, someway, Stock has been able to keep his fastball at 95-96 miles per hour from his new arm slot. 

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San Diego has routinely worked with pitchers who throw from lower sidearm or submarine arm slots. Tom Cosgrove, Ethan Routzahn, Alek Jacob, and Eric Yardley are some pitchers who have come through the San Diego system as sidearmers or submarine hurlers, and San Diego has helped them reach the Majors or improve their game to near-MLB levels.

Stock’s arm angle from his stint in Hermosillo resembles that of Ethan Routzahn in terms of release point and arm action. When looking under the hood at Stock’s performance in the Mexican Winter League, he struck out 22.9% of opposing batters while walking 10.9% of opponents. In the entirety of the Wild Card Era (from 1995 to present day), there have only been 15 qualified seasons with strikeout and walk rates greater than or equal to Stock’s, with the combined ERA of these 15 seasons sitting at 3.63. This stretch includes Blake Snell’s 2023 Cy Young season, three of Kerry Wood’s strong seasons with the Cubs (1998, 2001, 2003), and Tim Lincecum’s 2012 season, among others.

With the information in hand, it is certainly possible for Stock’s numbers to carry over to MLB in a small sample, but for him to be fully successful in a starter’s role, the Padres and Stock should work together on harnessing the movement on his pitches. The horizontal break on his slider and two-seamer is astonishing, and consistently starting those pitches at the right spot consistently will play a role in potentially lowering the walk rate. Adding in a pitcher like Stock on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training is a low-risk add for the Padres, and with his comprehension and knowledge of pitching, he could be a valuable veteran asset for a team with plenty of young pitchers to attend camp this season.

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