Pundit predictions for Padres during stretch run
Mandatory Credit: Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports
Thanks to their first appearance in the playoffs since 2006 and the team’s offseason additions, the San Diego Padres began the 2021 season near the top in most analysts’ predictions.
In those heady days, FanGraphs gave the Padres’ a 93.5 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers at 97 percent had a higher probability of post-season play. At this point in time, however, MLB.com currently gives the Padres just a 33 percent chance at playoffs.
Early this year, MLB.com, Cbsssports.com, and NBC Sports EDGE MLB power rankings placed the Padres second on their top-five list–ahead of the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, and New York Mets who were included in various top-five lists. Through the season though, the Padres’ position has risen and fallen enough to induce whiplash. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants, the team left off any list of playoff contenders, have proven everyone (except their front office) wrong.
About those Giants, the team just became the first to reach 90 wins, most definitely proving they are not a flash in the pan pretender.
From now until the end of the season three days into October, the Padres will face only face teams vying for the playoffs: the Giants, Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, and Atlanta Braves. The series against the Braves will include the completion of the July 22nd game from hell in Atlanta which included multiple rain delays.
As a result of the team’s inconsistencies, FanGraphs predicts that the Padres will only manage to win 12 of the 22 games remaining. Obviously, the darlings of the offseason have lost favor across the board.
The Athletic (Recently The Athletic developed a new Motivation Index with a scale of 1 to 100.)
1 Dodgers up from 2 motivation index 100
2 Giants down from 1 motivation index 101
3 Rays same motivation index undecided
4 Brewers up from 5 motivation index 21
5 Astros down from 4 motivation index 93
6 Chicago White Sox same motivation index 87
7 Yankees same motivation index 87.63
8 Red Sox same motivation index 53
9 Braves same motivation index 99
9 A’s up from 10 motivation index 89.78
11 Blue Jays up from 12 motivation index 91.71
12 Reds down from 11 motivation index 100 (at least)
13 Padres same motivation index 100
MLB.com Alyson Footer
1 Giants same
2 Dodgers same
3 Rays same
4 Astros same
5 Brewers up one
6 White Sox up one
7 Yankees down two
8 Braves 8 same
9 Red Sox 9 same
10 Blue Jays up 3
11 Reds down 1
12 Padres same
NBC Sports EDGE MLB Power Rankings
1 Giants same
2 Dodgers same
3 Rays same
4 Brewers same
5 Astros same
6 White Sox up one
7 Yankees down one
8 Red Sox up one
9 Blue Jays up three
10 Mariners up four
11 Braves down three
12 A’s down two
13 Padres same
According to Fivethirtyeight.com, in the National League West the Giants and Dodger each have a 99 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, the Padres just a 30 percent chance. The team’s chances of winning the division or reaching the World Series have dipped to below zero.
ESPN’s power rankings include projected winning percentage (first column) as well as relative power index+. In the latter category, San Diego has fallen to 17th place at .498.
Dodgers .681 Rays .536
Astros .632 Giants .534
Rays .632 Dodgers .531
Giants .629 Astros .527
Blue Jays .612 Red Sox .526
White Sox .607 Blue Jays .521
Brewers .598 Yankees .520
Braves .576 Brewers .518
Padres .560 White Sox .515
A’s .547 Mariners .515
Teamrankings.com currently projects that San Diego will finish 85.4 – 76.6, behind the Dodgers 102.1 – 59.9 and the Giants 101.5 – 60.5. Accordingly, the Padres’ odds of reaching the playoffs are 44.5 percent, the odds of winning the World Series 2.6 percent.
Over the season, the Padres have been especially streaky, as evidenced in a number of performance evaluations. Until recently, only the bullpen had lived up to the hype. However, warnings over their overuse have lately been proven to be prophetic. Offensively the team has bounced from awe-inspiring to head-scratching:
Batting % 13th .242
Slugging % 20th .402
OB % 9th .324
OPS 14th .726
BABIP 22nd .286
RBIs per game 10th 4.38
K’s per game 8th 8.24
Walks per game 3rd 3.78
LOB per game 19th 14.47
RISP 27th 3.60
Run Dif. 9th +73.0
On the pitching side, the team hasn’t excelled overall either.
ER per game 9th 3.71
WHIP 9th 1.223
SO per 9 5th 9.66
HR per 9 13th 1.20
Walks per 9 11th 3.13
Despite the obvious talent on the team, the San Diego Padres have not consistently lived up to expectations. The team’s positive run differential of +73.0 pales in comparison to both the Dodgers at +223.0 and the Giants at +157.)
However, it’s not over until it’s over. The San Diego Padres have the talent on both sides of the ball to prove the pundits wrong, BUT the clock is ticking.
Baseball has been a part of Diane’s life since her father played professionally (mostly at the minor league level). She has written for a number of publications and concentrated on companion animal welfare. She welcomes the opportunity to write about the sport she loves. Diane shares her home with her husband and a house full of rescued animals.