Pundit predictions for Padres during stretch run
Mandatory Credit: Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports
Thanks to their first appearance in the playoffs since 2006 and the team’s offseason additions, the San Diego Padres began the 2021 season near the top in most analysts’ predictions.
In those heady days, FanGraphs gave the Padres’ a 93.5 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers at 97 percent had a higher probability of post-season play. At this point in time, however, MLB.com currently gives the Padres just a 33 percent chance at playoffs.
Early this year, MLB.com, Cbsssports.com, and NBC Sports EDGE MLB power rankings placed the Padres second on their top-five list–ahead of the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, and New York Mets who were included in various top-five lists. Through the season though, the Padres’ position has risen and fallen enough to induce whiplash.  Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants, the team left off any list of playoff contenders, have proven everyone (except their front office) wrong.
About those Giants, the team just became the first to reach 90 wins, most definitely proving they are not a flash in the pan pretender.
From now until the end of the season three days into October, the Padres will face only face teams vying for the playoffs: the Giants, Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, and Atlanta Braves. The series against the Braves will include the completion of the July 22nd game from hell in Atlanta which included multiple rain delays.
As a result of the team’s inconsistencies, FanGraphs predicts that the Padres will only manage to win 12 of the 22 games remaining. Obviously, the darlings of the offseason have lost favor across the board.
The Athletic (Recently The Athletic developed a new Motivation Index with a scale of 1 to 100.)
1 Dodgers up from 2              motivation index        100
2 Giants down from 1            motivation index        101
3 Rays same                         motivation index        undecided
4 Brewers up from 5              motivation index        21
5 Astros down from 4            motivation index        93
6 Chicago White Sox same   motivation index        87
7 Yankees same                     motivation index        87.63
8 Red Sox same                     motivation index        53
9 Braves same                        motivation index        99
9 A’s up from 10                   motivation index        89.78
11 Blue Jays up from 12        motivation index        91.71
12 Reds down from 11          motivation index        100 (at least)
13 Padres same                      motivation index        100
MLB.com Alyson FooterÂ
1 Giants          same
2 Dodgers      same
3 Rays            same
4 Astros          same
5 Brewers       up one
6 White Sox   up one
7 Yankees      down two
8 Braves 8Â Â Â Â Â Â same
9 Red Sox 9Â Â Â same
10 Blue Jays   up 3
11 Reds          down 1
12 Padres       same
NBC Sports EDGE MLB Power Rankings
1 Giants          same
2 Dodgers      same
3 Rays            same
4 Brewers       same
5 Astros          same
6 White Sox   up one
7 Yankees      down one
8 Red Sox      up one
9 Blue Jays   up three
10 Mariners   up four
11 Braves       down three
12 A’s            down two
13 Padres       same
According to Fivethirtyeight.com, in the National League West the Giants and Dodger each have a 99 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, the Padres just a 30 percent chance. The team’s chances of winning the division or reaching the World Series have dipped to below zero.
ESPN’s power rankings include projected winning percentage (first column) as well as relative power index+. In the latter category, San Diego has fallen to 17th place at .498.
Dodgers         .681    Rays              .536
Astros             .632    Giants       .534
Rays               .632    Dodgers         .531
Giants             .629    Astros             .527
Blue Jays        .612    Red Sox         .526
White Sox      .607    Blue Jays        .521
Brewers          .598    Yankees         .520
Braves            .576    Brewers          .518
Padres            .560    White Sox      .515
A’s           .547    Mariners     .515
Teamrankings.com currently projects that San Diego will finish 85.4 – 76.6, behind the Dodgers 102.1 – 59.9 and the Giants 101.5 – 60.5. Accordingly, the Padres’ odds of reaching the playoffs are 44.5 percent, the odds of winning the World Series 2.6 percent.
Over the season, the Padres have been especially streaky, as evidenced in a number of performance evaluations. Until recently, only the bullpen had lived up to the hype. However, warnings over their overuse have lately been proven to be prophetic. Offensively the team has bounced from awe-inspiring to head-scratching:
Batting %          13th     .242
Slugging %         20th     .402
OB %                        9th      .324
OPS                            14th     .726
BABIP                       22nd    .286
RBIs per game      10th    4.38
K’s per game             8th       8.24
Walks per game     3rd       3.78
LOB per game           19th     14.47
RISP               27th     3.60
Run Dif.                     9th     +73.0
On the pitching side, the team hasn’t excelled overall either.
ER per game              9th       3.71
WHIP                        9th       1.223
SO per 9                     5th       9.66
HR per 9                    13th     1.20
Walks per 9                11th     3.13
Despite the obvious talent on the team, the San Diego Padres have not consistently lived up to expectations. The team’s positive run differential of +73.0 pales in comparison to both the Dodgers  at +223.0 and the Giants at +157.)
However, it’s not over until it’s over. The San Diego Padres have the talent on both sides of the ball to prove the pundits wrong, BUT the clock is ticking.
Baseball has been a part of Diane’s life since her father played professionally (mostly at the minor league level). She has written for a number of publications and concentrated on companion animal welfare. She welcomes the opportunity to write about the sport she loves. Diane shares her home with her husband and a house full of rescued animals.