San Diego could chase after Tampa Bay right-hander Shane Baz to fill rotation needs heading into 2025 with payroll flexibility in limbo.

The Friars face rotation questions heading into next season with two of the five starting spots up for grabs.

They, for certain, will be involved in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes once the Japanese ace’s posting becomes official. But they can’t afford to let his impending free agency decision keep them from addressing other moves. Shane Baz could be a name the Padres try to pry away from the Tampa Bay Rays this winter.

Baz, 25, is coming off a brief season for the Rays in which he started 14 games and logged 79.1 innings pitched.

After missing all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and the first half of the 2024 campaign with a left oblique strain, Baz is rounding into form. He returned to the Tampa Bay rotation on July 5 against the Texas Rangers. That day, Baz allowed three earned runs in six innings of work with six strikeouts. He went on to show signs of improvement in his workload per start. Baz went seven-plus innings in three of his last eight starts of the year. To close out his season, he held the Red Sox to two runs in six innings of work in a Rays’ 7-2 victory.

Shane Baz, 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/51LEBBKXhA

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 6, 2024

At a time considered the eighth-best prospect in the league by Baseball America, Baz possesses an arsenal of a four-seamer, slider, curveball, and changeup.

Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 76th percentile in Fastball Velocity and 90th percentile in Offspeed Run Value. Here’s his pitch mix breakdown for 2024:

Fastball:

Usage: 48%

Avg Velocity: 95-98 mph

Whiff Rate: 22.1%

Slider:

Usage: 21%

Avg Velocity: 87-90 mph

Horizontal Break: 2.1 inches (glove side)

Shane Baz, Wicked 89mph Slider. ?

7Ks thru 6. pic.twitter.com/guqIEUC0ZK

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 17, 2022

Curveball:

Usage: 20%

Avg Velocity: 83-86 mph

Vertical Drop: 52.4 inches (arm side)

Changeup:

Usage: 10%

Avg Velocity: 88-91 mph

BAA: .115

Fit Potential:

For the Padres, Baz checks quite a few boxes. He’s slated to make $1.6 million in 2025, which would not hurt an already tight San Diego payroll. The right-hander would slot perfectly behind the trio of Michael King, Dylan Cease, and Yu Darvish. Perhaps he may even slot into the third rotation spot. With the potential to grow into a frontline starter, Baz would also come with four total years of club control, making him a free agent until after the 2028 season. With Dylan Cease and Michael King set to hit free agency after 2025, Baz would keep the Padres’ starting rotation at least afloat for the next couple of years.

The long trade partnership between Padres GM A.J. Preller and Tampa Bay’s front office makes this particular trade feel sensible and attainable for San Diego. We can trace all the way back to December 2014, when Preller acquired Wil Myers from the Rays in a three-way trade. From there on, the list of Rays turned Padres just grew. Tommy Pham, Jake Cronenworth, Emilio Pagan, Blake Snell, and, most recently, Jason Adam were all acquired just in the last five seasons for the Friars.

The amount of prospect capital needed to complete this might not be as steep as some might think.

The Rays have garnered a reputation for building up players and then trading them to replenish their minor league farm system. They also have needs in the outfield and catcher’s spot heading into 2025. The Padres could start negotiations by offering prospect outfielder Tirso Ornelas, who had an outstanding 2024 season in El Paso. Luis Campusano could also be served as a trade chip to serve as a stopgap for the Rays until catching prospect Dominic Keegan is set to make his Big League debut. San Diego could also dangle pitching prospects Henry Baez and Isaiah Lowe. Both men had great seasons across Lake Elsinore, Fort Wayne, and San Antonio.

The Padres’ quest to find affordable and perhaps controllable starting pitching should pick up in the coming weeks, with the Winter Meetings set to begin December 9. As we should all know and expect by now, is to never say never when it comes to the unpredictable A.J. Preller.

Armando Dueñas Jr.

Armando Duenas is a 24 year-old aspiring journalist. He is a native San Diegan who grew up in the South Bay area. A lifelong Padres fan and baseball enthusiast, he resides just about fifteen minutes from PETCO Park, where his love of the game began.