Padres could bolster starting pitcher depth with old nemesis
Oct 30, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Walker Buehler (21) pitches during the ninth inning against the New York Yankees in game four of the 2024 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
The Padres need more starting pitching depth in 2025. Could they turn to an old rival for help?
Thanks to a a flurry of moves early last season, the Padres have solid starting pitchers heading into 2025. Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish are all set to return, making a respectable trio atop the rotation. Of course, there is a big void left by Joe Musgrove, who will miss the entire 2025 season with Tommy John surgery. The Padres need to address that absence with a move or two during this offseason cycle.
It feels unlikely the Padres are in play for big-name, big-money pitchers like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, or Max Fried. Unless Snell is anxious to return to San Diego on a team-friendly deal.
There is a pitcher available who is very familiar with the Padres, and Padres players and fans are certainly familiar with him. Walker Buehler is a free agent. Yes, the man who got the final out for the World Series champion Dodgers last week in New York.
Yes, the man who was a main character, and at times even the villain, to many Padres and Dodgers chronicles. He has pitched against the Padres twice in the postseason. He has a 2.67 ERA in five career starts at Petco Park.
Could Buehler be the guy to give the Padres’ starting rotation some depth and cover for the loss of Musgrove in 2025?
Indeed, the Kentucky native has been through a lot in his baseball career that would give the Padres pause. The right-hander has had two separate Tommy John operations. He made just 28 starts total between 2022 and 2024. He also does not hit north of 98 mph on the radar gun anymore. Likely gone are the days of him competing for Cy Young Awards. However, what he showed down the stretch and into the 2024 postseason suggests Buehler can be a valuable asset.
He posted a 3.31 ERA in his final 16 innings of the regular season. After stumbling against the Padres in Game 3 of the NLDS to the tune of six earned runs, he didn’t allow another earned run all postseason long. In three appearances (one against the Mets in the NLCS, one start, and one relief appearance against the Yankees in the World Series), he pitched 10 straight scoreless innings. That included a relief appearance in Game 5 of the World Series after just one day of rest, getting the final three outs to seal the championship for L.A.
While Buehler has battled injuries and ineffectiveness at times, his talent is tantalizing. Plus, it looks like he might have reinvented himself down the stretch this past season. Given his lack of durability, he wouldn’t command the same contract as fellow free agents Burnes, Fried, and Snell.
FanGraphs released their free agent rankings.
They project the previous three pitchers to garner an annual salary somewhere near $30 million per season. They slot Buehler for $15 million, half of what they would command.
For the Padres, given their new era of more frugality than that of Peter Seidler’s ownership (yet still much more willing to spend than previous hapless regimes), that still might be too rich. The Padres have many holes to fill, including shortstop and left field. Considering Buehler’s health record, putting all their eggs in one basket would be unwise. But if they can wait out the initial madness and get Buehler for closer to $10 million, that would be worth doing.
Of course, the next question is, would Buehler even want to come to San Diego? He was part of the Dodgers’ organization his entire professional life. Los Angeles drafted him in the first round of the 2015 draft and spent a decade with the same organization- San Diego’s biggest rival.
Other teams might be willing to pay Buehler more than the Padres. San Diego should not engage in a bidding war for his services, given his recent track record. If there is a mutual interest and a reasonable price, the Padres should pull the trigger. Buehler would not be counted on to be San Diego’s ace. Or even No. 2. They simply need a veteran arm to give them depth, experience, and innings. If Buehler truly found something long-lasting during the playoff run, that could springboard into a big 2025 season for him.
The Padres could be the benefactor of it.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.