Padres come to terms with five of six arb-eligible players

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With the salary arbitration deadline on January 9, the San Diego Padres signed several players.

The Padres came to terms with five of their six arbitration-eligible players before the deadline at 10 am Pacific Time. 

Dylan Cease (One season of arbitration eligibility remaining) – $13.75 million

The Padres and Dylan Cease agreed to a $13.75 million salary for the 2025 campaign, as reported by FanSided’s Robert Murray. Cease had been projected for a $13.7 million salary in 2025 by several outlets, including MLB Trade Rumors. Cease was nothing short of spectacular for the Padres in 2024, posting a 3.47 ERA, 224 strikeouts, and career bests in innings pitched (189.1 IP), FIP (3.10), and fWAR (4.8). Cease’s pay bump was not unexpected, as he and Michael King (more on him below) were the rocks of a Padres rotation constantly in flux. 

It is unknown the effect that Cease’s 2025 salary will have on any potential trade talks with other teams. Cease’s $13.75 million salary is somewhat of a bargain for teams considering his production when measured against the dollars per fWAR market value (1 fWAR = $6.7 million value).  With his salary now confirmed, San Diego will look to make the best decision for their organization when it comes to Cease remaining or being dealt. 

Luis Arraez (One season of arbitration eligibility remaining) – $14 million

For all the hoopla about valuing Luis Arraez in baseball circles, the questions can finally stop (for now). The team and Arraez agreed to a salary of $14 million for the 2025 campaign, below his projected arbitration salary of $14.6 million (as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz). Arraez is similar to Cease in regards to his future with the team, as while the team may love what he brings, his price tag may be too big a pill to swallow.

It’s worth noting that Arraez performed admirably in his time with the Padres in 2024, slashing .318/.346/.392 in 117 games with San Diego. Even more impressive was Arraez posting these numbers with a torn ligament in his thumb from late May onwards. Furthermore, Arraez’s future with the Padres is still fully unknown, as it was also reported by Bob Nightengale that the Padres intend to keep Arraez for 2025. Regardless of what the Padres plan on doing with Arraez for next season, his contract is now one less thing to worry about. 

Jason Adam (Second-to-last arbitration-eligible season) – $4.8 million

With the pitching market being an absolute nightmare for smaller to mid-market teams, Jason Adam’s contract looks like a steal for San Diego. Acquired from Tampa Bay mid-season for a trio of top prospects, Adam made himself right at home in San Diego, posting a stellar 1.01 ERA with a 2.45 FIP, along with an excellent 30.5% strikeout rate and nice 6.9% walk rate in 26.2 innings with San Diego.

Adam really unlocked another gear under Ruben Niebla and the Padres, and while reliever volatility is a very real situation, the increase in strikeouts and drop in walks bodes well for Adam in 2025. Adam was projected for a salary around the $5.7 million mark, so the Padres keep him in town below projected value while he has two more seasons of team control (2025-26). 

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Adrian Morejon (First of three arbitration-eligible seasons) – $2 million

Hard to believe, but after five partial seasons at the MLB level, Adrian Morejon has his first raise. Projected to make $1.8 million, Morejon secured an above-projection salary for 2025, and quite frankly, it’s well-earned. After an abysmal 2023 season, Morejon came into the year with minimal expectations and flashed some of the potential that made him a highly-touted international amateur nearly a decade ago.

Morejon became a late inning weapon for Mike Shildt’s team in 2024, logging a career-best 2.83 ERA in 63.2 innings. With his five-pitch mix and above-average velocity, Morejon has a chance to continue his breakout in 2025, and while it has been rumored he might be looked at as a starter next season, there is no denying that the once-top prospect has finally arrived.

Luis Campusano (First of four arbitration-eligible seasons as a Super Two player) – $1 million

While it is still worth wondering what his role will be on the 2025 Padres, Luis Campusano looks to put a disastrous season behind him. Projected for a $1.7 million salary, Campusano and the Padres agreed to a $1 million salary for this upcoming season. It almost felt as though everything that could have gone wrong for Campusano did in 2024, as his quality of contact absolutely tanked compared to 2023.

While he kept a strikeout rate below the league average at 13.7%, his pull-heavy approach and 46% ground ball rate only amplified his struggles. Part of his overall struggles can be attributed to an abysmal .246 BABIP (compared to a .331 BABIP in 2023), but the most significant development was his regression defensively. In 670 innings of duty behind the plate, Campusano allowed 41 steals in 49 attempts from opposing baserunners, with a pop time in the 38th percentile league-wide at 1.97 seconds. It stands to reason that San Diego is counting on the man known as Campy to hold his starting role going into 2025, but with Brandon Valenzuela and Ethan Salas in the wings, his seat may be getting warmer by the minute. 

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Michael King (Second of three-arb eligible seasons) – No Agreement

There is a chance that for the first time in A.J. Preller’s Padres tenure, the team and a player will go to an arbitration hearing. Michael King and the Padres failed to come to an agreement on a salary for 2025, per Kevin Acee. King filed for an $8.8 million salary for the 2025 campaign, while the Padres organization filed at the oddly-specific $7.325 million. That’s a difference nearing $1.5 million of value, and while it’s plausible that the Padres’ figure is as a result of their aim for their payroll (which has come under scrutiny in recent weeks), correlation does not equal causation.

King was arguably San Diego’s best pitcher, as from May 1 onwards, he pitched to a 2.56 FIP, 4.5 fWAR, and 28.5% strikeout rate in 137.2 innings. King also allowed only seven home runs in that span after allowing ten in March/April. For any chance at a postseason run in 2025, the Padres will need King to lead a rotation alongside Yu Darvish if there are any trades dealing away other arms in this rotation, especially with Joe Musgrove set to miss the season after Tommy John Surgery. It is certainly a matter of debate what King is worth in terms of financial commitment, but as of the publication of this piece, King and the Padres organization are not discussing an extension, report sources within the Padres organization. 

And that’s a wrap on the Padres’ arbitration class for 2025. Clearly, the situation has yet to be fully resolved, and it remains to be seen what the Padres will do to add to their roster going forward.

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