Is Tomoyuki Sugano a solution for the 2025 Padres rotation?
Japan Times
The Padres’ mettle was tested throughout the season, as the team saw injuries push several of their young pitchers into heavy action.
While Randy Vasquez and Matt Waldron showed flashes at the Major League level, would they be able to consistently show their best performances in every outing?
The Padres might look for a veteran option to hold down the fort in the wake of Joe Musgrove undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
One such option is longtime Yomiuri Giants starter Tomoyuki Sugano.
Sugano came close to making his MLB debut after the 2020 season, having been posted by the Giants, but was unable to secure a contract to his liking in the slog that was the 2020-21 offseason. Therefore, he re-signed with the Giants. With his contract coming to a close after the 2024 season, Sugano is reportedly planning on signing with an MLB team this offseason, as reported by Jeff Passan earlier this month.
So, who exactly is Tomoyuki Sugano?
In short, he is one of the best Japanese pitchers of his generation.
Drafted in the 2011 and 2012 Nippon Professional Baseball Draft (it’s a long story), Sugano has pitched his whole career in Japan for the Giants, tossing 1,857 innings in 12 seasons, posting a 2.43 ERA (3.146 FIP) and 1,585 strikeouts in that span. Sugano’s strikeout rate of 21.4% for his career might not be the flashiest for a Major League starter, but a career walk rate of 4.68% will certainly play.
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Now, Sugano as a free agent has a few red flags that might make some teams weary of pursuing his services.
In 2024, the right-hander tossed 156.2 innings across 24 starts, which is his highest total since 2018. Between 2019 and 2023, Sugano only had one truly elite season, with that being his 1.97 ERA (2.76 FIP) Central League MVP season in 2020. Other than that, he has posted ERAs of 3.89, 3.19, 3.12 and 3.36.
Sugano’s 2023 had his lowest innings total of his entire career, at 77.2 innings. This season’s inning total was more than double his workload from 2023, and with Sugano entering the 2025 season at age 35, some skepticism is certainly expected wherever he may sign.
Despite this, there are plenty of green flags in Sugano’s game that make him an appealing free agent for the San Diego Padres.
First off, Sugano is the kind of veteran presence the Padres are pursuing in free agency. Sure, the team has Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Matt Waldron, and Bryan Hoeing as possible starting options on the 40-man, as well as prospects like Omar Cruz, Jared Kollar, and Ryan Bergert who are near-MLB ready, but are the Padres willing to run the risk of one of those arms struggling out of the gate in a rotation with only three locks thus far?
It is more likely that the Padres bring in one veteran option to compete for a starting spot, as the team did in 2023 with Michael Wacha and in 2022 with the debatable Sean Manaea trade. Sugano also would not likely command a high price tag for his services as well. The last time a starting pitcher from Japan came to MLB at or near Sugano’s age was Hisanori Takahashi in 2010.
Even recent starting pitchers coming over from Japan haven’t commanded the highest of signing bonuses. Yes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga got an eight-figure AAV this past offseason, but that has to do with both their age and production. Other recent examples of Japanese pitchers coming over include Kohei Arihara and Shun Yamaguchi, and their contracts were nowhere near the value of Yamamoto and Iganama’s.
Now, what of Sugano’s arsenal?
The right-hander is one of the craftier pitchers on the market this offseason, as he possesses a six-pitch array that includes a four-seam fastball, two-seamer/sinker, slider, cutter, looping curveball, and splitter. Who does that sound like? Yu Darvish. Is Sugano going to be the same as Darvish?
There’s no way to know for certain, but Sugano’s arsenal had graded out as above-average per DeltaGraphs (the Japanese semi-equivalent of Baseball Savant). While his fastball is averaging 90-92 mph, the slider and cutter have sufficient difference in velocity and break to flummox batters from either side. Add to that a strong splitter, and this arsenal sounds rather intriguing for the Padres’ pitching R&D department.
So, let’s say the Padres decide to pursue Sugano. What would the contract look like?
Looking at international signings since 2020, most pitchers to come over have been relievers, with starters either being paid in eight figures or on minor league deals.
Sugano’s resume certainly speaks for itself, with the MVP’s, pitching Triple Crown and the All-Star selections.
However, the injuries in 2023 and his age might also complicate manners for the right-hander’s representatives. He is unlikely to be offered a contract like the one he signed with Yomiuri in 2020 (Four years, $40 million), but it is a scarce possibility. If Sugano signs with San Diego, the most likely outcome is a contract similar to that which Michael Wacha signed in 2023, or even a contract like Nick Martinez’s first Padres contract.
Essentially, the Padres are likely to present a multi-year contract with player or club options following every season from the contract, which would lower the AAV and provide Sugano with incentives along the way to increase his earnings.
Of the options the Padres would find on the free agent market, Tomoyuki Sugano might be the perfect fit for this team in 2025 and onwards.
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.