If I were the Padres GM (Improve staff and trade for outfielders)
Credit: USA Today Sports
In our final piece of this four-part series, Jason tells us how he would improve the San Diego Padres for the 2020 season and beyond.
In this fantasy land, I have successfully Jedi Mind Tricked Ron Fowler and Peter Siedler to fire A.J. Preller on the spot while allowing me to step in as General Manager of the San Diego Padres. I’ll have to take a hard look at my current roster to decide who should stay and who should go.
So clearly, there is some work to be done. While I don’t exactly have my work cut out for me, there are still plenty of pieces to work with. Plus, with owner Ron Fowler expecting things to turn around with the new brown jerseys, a few prospects and major league players can be sacrificed to acquire some talent (plus, with my scouting department, they can be replaced through the draft).
With this goal in mind, I will now begin my attempt at navigating the waters of the Padres season with the aim of bringing winning baseball back to San Diego.
As a wise man once said, “This is where the fun begins.”
The Rule 5 draft
It is not as simple as “cut player, replace with a younger player.” With a full 40-man roster, some players will have to get cut loose to protect some younger Padres prospects. Without the benefit of a 60-Day IL due to the offseason, somebody will have to get their pink slips.
There are multiple Padres in need of protecting, but the only player I will protect in this scenario is Michael Gettys. Yes, that means that 18th ranked Esteury Ruiz and 25th ranked Buddy Reed will be left available.
My reasoning behind this is that both Reed and Ruiz have had their struggles in the minors. After lighting up Lake Elsinore in 2018, Reed just hasn’t produced in Double-A Amarillo, evidenced by an OPS of .461 in 2018 and .698 in 2019 while his strikeout rate, while decreasing from last year, was still at a 28.6% in 2019. Ruiz, on the other hand, saw his production slip after a full season at Lake Elsinore as his OPS dropped to .657, and he only played in 98 games due to injury. Both players are also blocked by other players at their respective positions, as Taylor Trammell and Edward Olivares are above Reed on the pecking order while Ruiz is stonewalled by Luis Urias in the majors and players like Owen Miller and Hudson Potts above in Double-A.
As for why Gettys was selected, it is because he packs serious power that is attractive to both the Padres and other teams, Gettys saw his OPS jump up to .822 in Triple-A El Paso. The 31 homers he crushed came alongside a .260 ISO rating, but it came at the trade-off of a 30.5% strikeout rate. His on-base skills are lacking, but he is still an attractive option to other teams. I want to hold onto him as either trade bait or a contender for a spot on next year’s roster.
Ona is similar to Gettys with his power, but season-ending surgery sapped him off much of the 2019 season. He only played in 25 games, but the five home runs he hit with Amarillo were three less than the eight he hit at Lake Elsinore in 2018. His knack for making loud contact and power potential is real, evidenced by a pre-injury .191 ISO, While he won’t be making the major league roster anytime soon, but I’ll play it safe and keep him protected.
As for who gets cut, the first roster spot is an easy decision. The veteran Ian Kinsler will have to pack his bags to the anguish of many San Diegans as he will be sent to the baseball purgatory that is being designated for assignment. I’ll try to find a team that can eat some of his contract, but it wouldn’t pain me to release him.
Making deals
Now that my roster has been taken care of, it is time to focus on improving the roster. I have the prospect capital to swing a trade and the budget space to sign a few free agents, but I don’t have space to make a significant signing (i.e., Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole). So, it is time to get creative with what I have.
A Gray day
An inter-division trade? Surely I jest?!
No, I do not jest. The Rockies have sent out signals that Gray is on the market, and the right-hander has impressive stats and the potential to break free. His 2019 3.89 ERA was much better than the 5.12 ERA he posted in 2018, while his 4.06 FIP/3.89 xFIP/4.35 SIERA indicate that his ERA wasn’t exactly a fluke. Also, for pitching at the wiffle ball stadium of Coors Field, he has done well to keep the ball out of the air with a 50.7% groundball rate. Also, his 112 ERA+ over the past four seasons are the same as Cole’s from 2014-2017. With the proper coaching from Larry Rothschild, San Diego could swipe a bonafide ace from their inter-division rivals.
So, who is it going to take to pry Gray away? First, someone has to replace him in the rotation. With Eric Lauer getting bombarded every time he plays at Coors and Joey Lucchesi producing similar results, I’ll be sending Cal Quantrill to Colorado to replace Gray in the rotation. While his 5.15 ERA was an ugly number, his 4.28 FIP/4.53 xFIP/4.58 SIERA paint a slightly better picture. He is still 24 and has room to grow, but that will be up to Buddy Black and the Rockies.
It will take more than Quantrill to acquire Gray, so now is the time to dip into an area of depth. Looking at Colorado’s roster, they have a severe weakness at catcher. I don’t want to part with Luis Campusano (at least not in this deal), so I’ll part with one from my major league squad. Not Francisco Mejia, no, but Austin Hedges. I love his defense, I do, but I don’t like his 47 WRC+ and .563 OPS. However, his elite framing and glove skills must be attractive to a pitching staff whose collective 5.56 ERA ranked 29th in the Majors. Combining him with Tony Wolters should relieve the Rockies of any catching problems
So, I have acquired a pitcher, but I’m not done yet. For my next trick.
Taking a halfcourt shot
Now I’m going to roll the dice on something big. I need one more player for my starting rotation, and the Cleveland Indians, who have done business with the Padres before, have been fielding some calls on their young starting pitchers. Young guns like Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale have been getting asked about by teams looking for an upgrade, but I’m not interested in them. Strasburg and Cole are the top arms on the free agent, but thanks to Scott Boras and his stubborn insistence on ludicrously large contracts, I’ll back off on them. But the Indians still have an ace I could acquire.
Not Corey Kluber. Not Shane Bieber. I want Mike Clevinger.
The 28-year-old had himself a beautiful season despite missing time with injuries, pitching 126 innings, and accruing a 2.71 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. His advanced metrics back this up with a 2.49 FIP/3.09 xFIP/3.31 SIERA while he posted a career-high strikeout rate of 12.07. He is also just reaching his first year of arbitration, so whatever team he suits up for will control him throughout 2023.
Clevinger is not the only Indian I wish to acquire. After suffering a torn ACL in late August, Tyler Naquin has been lost in the shuffle of the Indians’ roster after multiple different Indians have tried (and failed) to capture a spot on the starting nine. Indians beat reporter Mandy Bell reports that the Indians are searching for outfield help even after acquiring Franmil Reyes from the Padres in July. However, I believe I can still acquire the oft-injured-yet-talented Naquin.
The 28-year-old posted a .792 OPS in 89 total games, but he is still bursting with potential should he remain healthy. Plus, while he won’t wow anybody with his power, he has sneaky pop from the left side of the plate while his speed will net him plenty of extra-base hits. Ah yes, the main factor of acquiring Naquin. A left-handed bat that I can put at either the top or bottom of the lineup that can provide balance to my lineup chock-full of righties.
The current state of the Cleveland infield is alright. Jose Ramirez can play second and third base, but the Indians can put him at either position if they can find an upgrade. He is going to stay at third base and like it because I’m sending Luis Urias to Cleveland. Urias had his struggles in 2019 thanks to a longer swing and a leg kick that didn’t work, but a .300/.378/.425 batting line through September and October showed a glimmer of hope for the once top prospect. If the Indians can buy into that hope, they’ll have themselves a brand new second baseman to pair up with Francisco Lindor up the middle of the infield.
The Indians have been looking for outfield help for a while now. We all know how powerful a hitter Reyes is in right field, but his glove is lacking behind his bat. Yasiel Puig has left for free agency, Jordan Luplow is better suited for a platoon role (1.020 career OPS against lefties vs. a .596 OPS against righties), Bradley Zimmer is coming back from injuries, and Oscar Mercado is set as the centerfielder. I believe that one of my outfielders will tie a ribbon on this trade package, Hunter Renfroe. After Reyes was traded, Renfroe seemed to forget how to hit a baseball as he finished up the season with a 98 wRC+ and a .778 OPS, but a .239 BABIP shows that he may have been getting unlucky. What saved his season was his newfound defensive skills (earning him a Gold Glove nomination) and a .273 ISO that indicated that his power was legit. Adding Renfroe would allow Reyes to move to designated hitter full time while the reunification should add the extra competition that Renfroe needs.
The loss of Patino and Urias will be felt amongst my farm system, but it is the price for an ace of Clevinger’s caliber. Naquin won’t be returning until April or June, but I’ll still have Josh Naylor to fill his role in the outfield.
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I am currently attending San Diego State University while working on achieving a major in journalism. At SDSU, I write for The Daily Aztec while also hosting the sports radio show “Picked Off”, for KCR Radio. A loyal fan of San Diego sports, I hope to bring content that you will enjoy reading.
This is my audition for assistant GM. Lol. A caveat: please have mercy on me when it comes to specific players in deals and projections. Without the information the team has, and maybe more importantly, knowing the team approach to hitting (coach, organizational focus, etc.), a good deal of our spitballing could be misguided. I’m more about philosophy and direction with this post.
Very few (any?) championship winning baseball teams were built on sluggers hitting .240 with a .300 OBP. When we look at the Giants, Royals, Red Sox, Astros, Nationals of the past decade, very few relied on the long ball with poor OBP. Power, yes, but not at the expense of bat control. I’m interested in ultimately a lineup of top 1/3 MLB players at their position at every position. That means high average, OBP, defense, speed, and 20-25 HR power around the diamond 1-8. Thanks to the vision of our current administration, the farm is at its franchise best and now we’re tacking on being the best at development with Tingler, etc. It’s exciting to see “what needs to happen”, finally happen. For 35 years, I have waited for this!
We have guys who fit this mantra already, and if guys are truly maximized, we may not need a lot of change in personnel. But, my sense is that isn’t accurate. Hedges, Renfroe, Kinsler, etc. don’t likely fit that model. So, here are 2 3-team deals that could jumpstart that change. Again, I don’t know specific values but think the concepts are worth pursuing. In each deal, I look for win-win-win.
DEAL 1:
(Years of control in parentheses)
Cubs get: Kirby Yates (1), Austin Hedges (3), Wil Myers (3+1), Luis Urias (6), Whit Merrifield (3+1), Jakob Junis (4)
Royals get: Eric Hosmer (6), Nick Margavicius (6), Ian Kinsler (1+1), Kyle Schwarber (2), Addison Russell (2)
Padres get: Adalberto Mondesi, Jr (4), Danny Duffy (2), Willson Contreras (3), Kris Bryant (2), Tyler Chatwood (1), and Craig Kimbrell (2+1)
Explanation: It’s complicated, yes, but hear me out. First, I think both Hosmer and Myers can be parts of a championship in SD, but to make this deal, both need to go, and the salary savings are useful. Again, I think both have been wrongly attacked by some. This deal is basically a reshuffle of guys who don’t fit well where they are but could fit better elsewhere. The Cubs would have to like the overall payroll flexibility they could use to add high level FAs, and Russell, Schwarber, Kimbrell, and Chatwood all need to go. Are a few years of Bryant and the destined-to-be-let-go Contreras worth the control of Merrifield, Urias, and easily, cheaply extendable Yates? Would the Royals be thrilled to regain Hoz, add Schwarber, and use Russell as placeholder for fast rising Witt, Jr. in addition to a young arm of some name in place of two good middle infielders? Would the Padres trade promising Urias, Yates, Hoz, etc. to add some short term players and gain financial flexibility? I say yes in some way to all 3. Does the deal require more minor pieces? Probably. But, in essence, there should be connectivity here for all 3. Most importantly, the Padres get a high ceiling LH 2nd basemen who has already succeeded in the majors, an MVP caliber catcher, and two workable bullpen arms. The deal to me hinges on Kimbrell’s medicals. Why not mention Bryant’s return to SD? Because…
DEAL 2:
Rangers get: Cal Quantril (6), Hunter Renfroe (4), Josh Naylor (6)
Mets get: Mike Minor (1), Nomar Mazara (2), Kris Bryant (2), Luis Torrens (6)
Padres: get: Noah Syndergaard (2), Michael Conforto (2), JD Davis (5), Jose Leclerq (3+2), Delino Deshields Jr (2)
Again, it’s complicated. Lol. Though Naylor could fight for 1st post-Hoz, Texas needs him, and FA offers vets that fit a “win now” dictum In this deal the Padres pass on Bryant, a value that allows the Padres to hang onto all of their top flight , controllable pitching (Gore, Patino, Weathers, etc.) and their middle infield depth. Meanwhile, Thor moves out of NY as both he and team want to do. Again, does Texas need another young mid-tier or lower arm or two to make the deal? Maybe. But, I think this general deal benefits all parties. The Padres would then look like this:
SS Fernando Tatis Jr. R
LF Corey Dickerson. L (FA)
3B Manny Machado. R
RF Michael Conforto L (TR)
C Willson Contreras. R (TR)
1B Mitch Moreland. L (FA)
CF Manny Margot. R
2B Adalberto Mondesi Jr L (TR)
C/3B/OF Francisco Mejia. S
1B/3B/OF JD Davis. R
OF Franchy Cordero. L
IF Greg Garcia. L
IF Ty France. R
IF/OF Delino Deshields, Jr.R
1 Noah Syndergaard. R
2 Garrett Richards. R
3 Chris Paddack. R
4 Dinelson Lamet. R
5 Joey Lucchesi. L
CL Craig Kimbrell. R
8 Drew Pomeranz. L (FA)
7 Dellin Bettances. R (FA)
Mid Jose Castillo. L
Mid Jose LeClerq. R (TR)
Mid Tyler Chatwood. R (TR)
Mid Andres Munoz. R
Mid Gerardo Reyes. R
Mid Matt Strahm. L
Mid Trey Wingenter. R
Mid Luis Perdomo. R
LR Danny Duffy. L (TR)
LR Eric Lauer. L
As you can see, I supplemented the team with free agents. Pomeranz and Bettances sign competitive short term contracts with high incentives with people they trust. Dickerson and Moreland are professionals who fit shirt term contract needs with veteran leadership. AJ would know Mitch from the Rangers pennants. The team would have flexibility in Tatis extension talk, keep the bulk of the long term, highest level farmhands. The bullpen could be lethal if healthy, shortening the innings needed from a somewhat balky rotation while also having depth to absorb injury. The everyday lineup has excellent defense and a more professional hit-maker feel. The bench is versatile and talent-laden. If Margot gets maximized in what may be his last chance to be the CF of the future, this team has almost no significant holes if healthy.
You’re welcome.
Ouch not even giving Garret Richards a shot at the rotation ?
Martini has already been DFA’d.
The Padres just hung out another help wanted sign… General Manager not dreaming needed – apply within
Why is everyone drinking the kool-aid that The Padres can’t afford Strasburg? They can and they owe it to the LONG suffering fans of San Diego!
It’s not a matter of can they it’s a matter of should they and the answer is NO. He wants a 6-7 year deal at at least 30 mil per. That’s just not a smart way to allocate funds for someone with his injury history. Plus he’s 31 so at the end of the deal he’ll be 37 or 38. As much as I’d like to see him pitch for us there’s so much more we can do with that kind of money!
I would agree that we absolutely can do it, however it just severely hamstrings us to making other necessary improvements to the team. Also I don’t like the idea of having to pay a potentially not as good Stras in 2025 and not being able to afford a potential stud like Paddack or Tatis or Gore and so on.
I like about half of your deals. You did however leave out one main returning starter Garrett Richards from your roster. How does he fit in?
Well done on the thought detail. Love the return for the most part and I would sign 70 percent of this memo. Patino has to be a Padre. Remove Naquin from the return and solely target Clevinger. You mean to tell me Lucchesi, Cantillo or Weathers, Urias or Arias and Margot doesn’t get some attention? That’s an imediate replacement for Clevinger, their choice of the next best pitcher not named Patino or Gore. A long term solution for 2B or for SS when Lindor goes. A CF. All could be on their 2022 roster when Lindor walks.
So Gray perfect, now have Clevinger w Patino and Renfroe ( a better Naquin). Wil deal is probably gona take another prospect to do Morejon and France seems right assuming 8M per year (24M) in cash. The Haniger part is bizarre, as was Naquin. I have stated on one of the other three Mancini makes much more sense. Yeah hes RH but his splits are neutral as are his home/ away averages. He hits everywhere. Buy into Pomeranz, done.
I like this one the best of the 4. Well done.