How the Padres shed payroll, Juan Soto and got so much better
Aug 12, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar (10) is congratulated by center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) after scoring a run against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the seventh inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Ahead of the 2024 season, the Padres made a host of moves that cut payroll significantly. Yet, they appear to be so much better.
When a team loses the reigning Cy Young Award winner and one of the best closers in the game and trades away a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate, logic will tell you that team will take a step back.
The problem is that there is nothing logical about the San Diego Padres.
Last year, the Padres had an entire season of Juan Soto, Blake Snell, and Josh Hader. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha had resurgent seasons as starters. Yet, the team was historically un-clutch, finishing 82-80. They only finished above .500 thanks to a too-little-too-late 20-7 run to end the season. They were 11 games under .500 on August 31.
Despite all that talent, the Padres fell flat on their faces. Now, most of that talent has left and been otherwise recycled, minus Tatis. Though, Tatis has missed basically one-third of the season.
All of this, of course, while toting the top payroll among baseball teams who do not reside in New York at over $256 million.
When the 2024 season kicked off, that payroll was down to near $200 million. The organization emphasized they wanted to reset their tax penalty timeframe, needing to be under $237 million. That was a decrease of over $50 million.
They let Blake Snell and Josh Hader walk in free agency. Most notably, they traded away a generational talent in Juan Soto.
And yet, they are playing the best baseball right now that they have played since their run to the National League Championship Series in 2022, having won 19 of their last 22. How can this be after they dropped from third to 15th in payroll and lost several All-Stars?
The return for the Soto trade
First, they replenished the depth of the roster with the Soto trade. Michael King has been the second-best starter in the rotation in San Diego. This is after never having been a full-time starter in the big leagues before. His career high in innings pitched before this season was 104. He’s now at 135 1/3 innings. Yet, he doesn’t show signs of slowing down. In four starts since the All-Star break, King owns a 2.22 ERA.
Then there’s Kyle Higashioka. It would be hard to imagine a better season for a player who many saw as a throw-in to this trade as a backup catcher. All he’s done is play better baseball at the plate and defensively in every way than the Padres’ young catcher, Luis Campusano. His 14 homers is a career-high, and his .781 OPS is more than 100 points higher than Campusano’s. The former Yankee backstop is now basically the Padres’ starting catcher.
Randy Vasquez provided valuable depth in the rotation when Joe Musgrove was hurt. He pitched six innings or more in four outings and had seven starts of one earned run or less.
Vasquez and King have helped, making up for the extended absences of Musgrove and Yu Darvish in the rotation.
Jhony Brito has given the Padres 43 innings in relief as well.
Basically, thanks to the Soto trade, the Padres were able to fill 40 starts in the rotation and slot in a new starting catcher to this point. All for pennies on the dollar compared to Soto’s 2024 salary of $31 million.
Don’t forget that the Padres also acquired pitching prospect Drew Thorpe in the megadeal. That leads us to the next point…
Dylan Cease trade
Given the payroll constraints, A.J. Preller needed to be a bit more selective about which deals he swung. How about the ace of a team going nowhere with a salary of less than $10 million? Cease was just one season removed from finishing runner-up in the AL Cy Young race in 2022. Right as the Padres were boarding a plane for the Korean Series to kick off the regular season, news broke of the blockbuster deal between the Padres and White Sox.
The deal sent the aforementioned Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, and Steven Wilson to Chicago to get Cease in a Padres uniform. Thus far, he’s been everything the Padres could’ve hoped for and more. Not only does he have a 3.41 ERA in just under 143 innings, but he has a no-hitter to boot. He leads Major League Baseball with 181 strikeouts and 25 starts. In essence, he replaced Blake Snell atop the Padres rotation seamlessly.
Luis Arraez trade
In May, the Padres kicked off the trade deadline festivities very early. They needed more on-base ability and contact atop the lineup. Arraez is one of the best contact hitters in the game. He’s shown that elite skill and plate discipline, batting .310 with a .336 on-base percentage since arriving in San Diego. The Padres are 6-1 when Arraez logs three hits or more. He already has four four-hit games in a Padres uniform.
The pitching staff rounding into form
Let’s give A.J. Preller some credit for not only finding Robert Suarez after he pitched in Japan but giving him an extension that now looks like a bargain. Suarez is a top-five closer in baseball. He’s fourth in saves (27) and sixth among closers in ERA (1.68).
It’s not just Suarez getting it done, either. Since the trade deadline on July 30, the Padres own the best bullpen ERA in the National League at 2.59. That is much in part to the deadline acquisitions San Diego brought in with Marlins closer Tanner Scott and Rays setup man Jason Adam. They have a combined 1.32 ERA in just over 13 innings since joining the Padres’ bullpen. Yuki Matsui, Jeremiah Estrada, and Adrian Morejon all have ERAs better than 3.60 as well.
Matt Waldron has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation. His knuckleball has guided him to a 4.00 ERA and 102 ERA+, providing stability towards the back of the Padres’ rotation. It is especially key with Darvish still out for an indefinite period of time. Martin Perez also owns a 1.96 ERA in three starts since that under-the-radar deal with Pittsburgh.
The Padres would not have been able to afford trading for any of Cease, Arraez, Scott, or Adam had they not traded Soto.
Bench players stepping up
One of the savviest moves Preller has made in years is the acquisition of Donovan Solano. He signed a minor league deal with the team shortly after the season started. He arrived on the big league team on May 6 and has been one of the steadiest hitters on the team ever since. In just over 200 plate appearances, he posts a .308 average, .353 on-base percentage, and a 122 OPS+. He even put together a four-hit, four-RBI game on August 6 against the Pirates. He filled in nicely when Xander Bogaerts was out and now is a luxury to have in a reserve role.
David Peralta has done much of the same in the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis has not played since June 21. Ever since that day, Peralta has provided plus defense in right field while also batting .291 with six homers and an .839 OPS. Not bad for a player who didn’t appear in a game this year until May 18.
The Jackson Merrill Effect
We can’t go any further without mentioning the Padres’ centerfielder. Jackson Merrill has been nothing short of a revelation as a rookie. His offensive numbers only tell part of the story. Still, they are solid, with a .288 average, .801 OPS, and 17 homers to his name. His clutch numbers are what stands out. In what Baseball Reference calls “high leverage” moments, he has a .892 OPS with seven home runs. He has seven home runs that either gave the Padres the lead or tied the game. Not only that, he’s doing all this while playing a new defensive position on the fly. Centerfield is one of the most demanding positions in baseball, and Merrill is in the 91st percentile for Outs Above Average.
He makes a very strong case for NL Rookie of the Year.
It’s quite shameful that it took this long to mention the Padres’ MVP, Jurickson Profar. Read that last part again slowly. Yes, Profar has been the most valuable Padre. He leads the Padres in fWAR (3.7), home runs (19), RBI (72), wRC+ (150), and OPS (.874). This season, he earned his first All-Star selection at age 31. He owns the top on-base percentage mark in the National League at .393. What the Curacao native has accomplished this year, after joining the team for a measly $1 million, is nothing short of remarkable. He is one of the best stories in all of baseball this season. Where would the Padres be without Profar this season? In a year where Tatis and Bogaerts have been hurt, and Manny Machado took a few months to get healthy and look like himself, Profar has been the star.
Playing for Peter Seidler
The parallels between this season and the National League-champion 1984 Padres squad are not lost on me. That team was playing for something bigger than themselves. Ray Kroc owned the Padres from when he saved them from moving to Washington, D.C., in 1974 to his death a few months before the 1984 season. The team wore a patch with his initials on it to honor him. They honored him on the field by winning 92 games, finishing in first place in the N.L. West, and making it to the World Series.
This season, the Padres, their fans, and the entire city of San Diego mourn the loss of owner Peter Seidler, who passed away on November 14, 2023. He turned the Padres’ payroll into one of the most formidable and flexible in all of baseball. The Padres are seeking to honor him with a championship after he famously said, “one year soon the baseball gods will smile on the San Diego Padres and we will have a parade.”
The Padres are on the hottest streak in franchise history right now. It’s almost as if they are playing to make their late, beloved owner’s dream a reality.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.