Five Rule 5 selection candidates for the Padres
(Will Dion) Credit: SI.com
With needs around the roster, could San Diego look to the Rule 5 draft for reinforcements?
The San Diego Padres have an incomplete roster, as it is still the offseason.
With free agency and trade rumors swirling aplenty, it is easy to forget about the Rule 5 Draft.
The Padres are no strangers to the Rule 5 draft, as last year saw the team select Stephen Kolek out of the Mariners organization, whose rookie season was a mixed bag.
Prior selections for San Diego include talents ranging from Shane Victorino to Luis Perdomo to Allen Córdoba. This year’s Rule 5 eligible crop of players is of great intrigue, and the following is a list of candidates for selection, as well as how they might fit the Padres roster.
Luis De Avila, SP/RP, ATL
2024 Stats (Double-A) – 101 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 55.3% Groundball Rate
The Padres currently have five left-handed arms on their 40-man roster, but of those five, only one has starting pitching experience on a semi-consistent level, that being Omar Cruz.
San Diego may have faith in Cruz as a rotation option given his penchant for strikeouts, but selecting Luis De Avila in the Rule 5 draft could provide the Padres some flexibility.
De Avila, 23, spent last season with the Braves’ Double-A affiliate and posted a 3.74 ERA in 101 innings, getting ground balls on 55.3% of batted balls against him. The 2024 season saw his strikeout rate drop, but with it came a drop in flyball percentage.
He throws a sinkerballer with a strong fading changeup and complimentary breaking pitches. De Avila could be a rotation option for the Padres if he can outperform guys like Randy Vasquez, Matt Waldron, and the aforementioned Cruz in Spring Training. Even if he is unable to, De Avila could function as a relief option against left-handers, as he profiles in a similar vein to Wandy Peralta at a fraction of the cost.
Luis De Avila today:
6 IP
0 H
0 R
2 BB
8 KThat makes it 11 consecutive no-hit innings by the No. 28 @Braves prospect over two starts for the @mbraves. pic.twitter.com/R9ccRgNMaN
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 23, 2023
Will Dion, SP, CLE
2024 (Triple-A) – 116.2 IP, 4.92 xFIP, 22.4% K, 30.4% K rate from 2021-23
If San Diego opts to select a surefire starting pitcher, Will Dion out of the Guardians’ organization would be the optimal fit.
Drafted in the 9th round of the 2021 MLB Draft, Dion initially made his stock as a crafty lefty with a delivery eerily similar to that of Clayton Kershaw.
While his delivery has evolved from that point since the start of his pro career, Dion has managed to deliver elite strikeout rates in the minors. As he progressed through the minors, those rates remained high. The 2023 season saw him strike out 26.7% of opposing batters at Double-A, with a walk rate below 8%.
Dion struggled in 2024 at Triple-A, partly due to an alarming 1.62 HR/9 rate in 29 games (27 starts). This rate was over 2.5 times higher than his career average home run rate. His walk rate at 10.6% last season also appeared to be an outlier, as Dion has consistently been in the 6-8% walk rate threshold.
While he doesn’t possess blistering velocity, sitting 89-92 with his fastball, his pairing of off-speed pitches led by an above-average changeup with excelling tunneling can make for an intriguing candidate for the Niebla pitching lab. His low-80s slider and curveball are also rated as average to above-average offerings, and if he can rediscover the command that made him a top-15 prospect in Cleveland’s farm system after 2023, Dion might be a solid back-end starter for the Padres.
Guardians prospect Will Dion has a 2.14-ERA/10.8-SO9 since being drafted. He modeled his game after Clayton Kershaw ? pic.twitter.com/CISdMXIQTT
— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) March 5, 2024
Aaron Davenport, SP, CLE
2024 (Double-A) – 142.1 IP, 2.85 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 23% K, 22.4% Infield fly rate
Another member of the Guardians’ 2021 draft class, right-hander Aaron Davenport, made a name for himself in the 2024 season with the Guardians’ Double-A affiliate.
After an ERA and FIP in the five range last season, Cleveland promoted him, and he answered the call, posting a 2.85 ERA and 3.73 FIP in 142.1 innings, a career-high in innings pitched.
Davenport isn’t the most highly touted, but he still possesses a strong four-pitch mix. The highlight of this mix is a knee-buckling 12-6 curveball in the mid-to-high 70s, with a four-seam fastball in the low-90s that has touched 94-95 mph. Davenport compliments these offerings with a developing changeup with room to improve, along with a slider in the mid-80s.
As a former collegiate arm at the University of Hawaii, Davenport might be a player who could rise to the challenge of pitching major league innings in 2025, and his arsenal provides plenty of options for the Padres to work with.
Aaron Davenport’s Curveball (? & ?️) pic.twitter.com/hHoklEmPBy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 5, 2021
Christian MacLeod, SP, MIN
2024 Total – 92.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 27.2% K, 11.7% BB rate, 3.96 xFIP in 8 Double-A Games
Of the five pitchers in this article, MacLeod might be the biggest gamble as a starter.
The former Mississippi State southpaw missed the 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery but returned to the mound in 2023 to put up impressive strikeout numbers.
MacLeod only got better in 2024, striking out a cumulative 27.2% of batters across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A (one start). His 11.7% walk rate would be more concerning, but he is still on the mend from Tommy John. So, his control has room to improve.
MacLeod’s arsenal with a high-ride fastball could provide confusion for opposing batters despite his upper-80s/low-90s velocity. He compliments his fastball with a changeup and a pair of breaking pitches, which tunnel very well out of his three-quarter arm slot. While the separation in velocity might be a concern, the Padres’ staff have shown an ability to get the most out of pitchers with below-average velocity, as they did with Martin Perez in 2024.
Christian MacLeod was masterful in the @CRKernels win yesterday?
5.2 IP / 5 H / 2 R / 1 BB / 11 K
The 11 strikeouts was the most he’s ever had in 28 career pro games
It was also tied for the most strikeouts in a game for a Twins @MiLB pitcher this season⚔️#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/DEc6F0org6
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) July 14, 2024
Bailey Dees, SP, NYY
2024 (Double-A) – 4.25 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 24.9% K, 9.3% BB, 33.3% Infield fly rate
While his numbers might not be the flashiest, Bailey Dees could be a diamond in the rough in the Rule 5 draft.
Standing at a towering 6-foot-8, Dees is coming off his first entire season as a starting pitcher since 2021 at Penn State.
Dees certainly showed he could have success in that role, posting a strikeout rate of just under 25% while making a living off of soft contact. Interestingly, given Dees’ extension off the mound and release point, opposing batters found themselves constantly underneath his pitches, generating infield fly balls on 33.3% of batted balls against.
The right-handed pitcher has a hard mid-90s fastball that can reach 96-97 if he really rears back for it, and his changeup and slider play up thanks to his height and three-quarter slot. Since Dees has experience as a starter and reliever in his pro career, he could be a relief option for the Padres along with Sean Reynolds, but for this case study, he would make an interesting candidate for the Padres’ rotation if selected.
PLAYOFF BAILEY DEES SHOVED?
6️⃣.2️⃣ IP | 2️⃣ R | 4️⃣ H | 1️⃣ BB | 9️⃣ K pic.twitter.com/qvwaoDqtqD
— Somerset Patriots (@SOMPatriots) September 18, 2024
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.