Extending Luis Arraez should be a priority for Padres

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The San Diego Padres’ season is over, but there is always work to do. Luis Arraez will be a free agent after the coming season, and the Padres may want to explore extending the talented young infielder. 

Luis Arraez is a hitting machine.

Much like San Diego Padres icon Tony Gwynn, he simply puts the ball in play consistently. With three batting titles in a row, Arraez is justifying the comparison to Gwynn. Though, he has a long way to go before he is considered anywhere near what Gwynn was as a player. There is a lot to like about the Venezuelan left-handed swinger.

Arraez suffered through a miserable postseason (.182 average in NLDS) but is still very much considered a valuable player to the Padres.

Batting first, his job is to set the table for Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar, and Manny Machado. He does that, for the most part, though he rarely walks and does not possess a high career on-base percentage. Luis Arraez prefers to hit his way on base, and he does that rather successfully.

There is little power to Arraez’s swing, so it was troubling to see him put the ball in the air several times in the playoffs. Lofting high fly balls is considered a very easy out and not how the left-handed hitter typically attacks pitchers. A thumb injury may be the culprit, as Arraez injured the thumb midway through the season. To his credit. You have heard barely any word from Arraez about the injury. He will not use it as an excuse for his performance.

Accountability and professionalism are exactly what the Padres want to see from their players in the future. Luis Arraez fits that mold.

But can the Padres afford to sign him long-term?

 

What will it cost?

The price to retain his services long-term isn’t as expensive as you might think.

Arraez is considered one of the best pure hitters in the game, but there are some holes to his game. First off, his defensive abilities at second base are diminishing. Arraez looked pretty comfortable this year at first base, so there is hope he wouldn’t just be a DH moving forward. His bat is effective but not what you traditionally get from first base (a power position). There are questions about his defense, that is for sure.

Another chink to his armor (if you want to call it that) is that he possesses little to no power. He has 28 career homers in over 2,600 at-bats. His swing isn’t about driving the ball in the air, so to expect power would only hurt his overall production. Luis Arraez will never be a power threat. But there is still value here.

In early 2023, the Padres extended Jake Cronenworth for seven years and $80 million. Fresh off his huge hit in the 20222 NLDS against the Dodgers, Preller and the Padres handed out a raise to Cronenworth even though he was years from free agency. This deal is proving to be a negative thing, as Cronenworth’s numbers have declined each year since signing he debuted in the league. He did have a slight uptick this season in his numbers from 2023, but they are still below what the Padres envisioned for Cronenworth.

Giving Arraez seven years and $80 million seems like an overpay at this point. And that is all you need to know about the reality of the Jake Cronenworth contract.

Arraez is making $10.6 million this season and will likely make another million or so in his last season of arbitration in 2025.

Handing him a multi-year deal at around $10 million seems feasible, but the Padres really do need to be careful handing out money.

 

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The verdict

Where there is smoke, there is fire.

Luis Arraez is clearly in love with San Diego. He wants to stay. Arraez told the media on Friday (after the final game of the season) that he wants to remain a Padre. When asked what it meant to play for the Padres this season, Arraez got slightly emotional. “It means a lot… especially if they want to sign me. Everybody knows it is a business, but I want to stay here for a long time,” Arraez said.

There you have it. There is interest.

The infielder mentions the business aspect of the sport but has a strong desire to remain with the Padres.

Will it happen? There seems to be a likelihood.

Though the Padres do have some budget restraints, they can find a way to keep this veteran. At the age of 28, Luis Arraez seems to have plenty of baseball in the future. His swing and his approach dictate that the left-handed swinger could play well into his late 30s. His bat-to-ball skills may diminish slightly, but that will only make Arraez above average instead of elite.

Will he take a discount? Maybe some deferred money? The Padres will need more financial flexibility in the future as both Michael King and Dylan Cease approach free agency after next season as well. A.J. Preller is as creative as it gets when reconstructing his roster. We will see what he has in store for Luis Arraez in 2025 and beyond.

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