With the offseason now in full swing, the San Diego Padres have a plethora of decisions to make regarding their 40-man roster.

Aside from departing free agents, the team will need to add players to their 40-man roster ahead of the November 22 non-tender deadline.

We here at EVT will examine any non-tender candidates. In this article, we will look into Rule-5 eligible players the team should look to add to the 40-man roster.

For those unaware, a player who qualifies for the Rule-5 draft is either a player who:
– Is not on 40-man and signed at age 18 and has spent 5 years within the organization
– Is not on 40-man and signed at age 19 or above and has spent 4 years within the organization

The Padres have 40 minor leaguers who would qualify for the Rule-5 draft in either its Major League or minor league variant. Of those, the following are either the closest to the big leagues or pose the strongest cases for a 40-man roster spot.

Position Players (3):

Brandon Valenzuela, Catcher

Currently ranked at No. 12 in the Padres farm system per MLB Pipeline, it has been a long road for Valenzuela to get to the cusp of the Major Leagues. The Mexican-born catcher reached as high as Triple-A this 2024 season, spending time at catcher and first base with both the Missions and Chihuahuas. Valenzuela has shown a solid fielding ability behind the dish, and his arm has proven to be above average. This season, Valenzuela threw out 33 of 100 attempted base-stealers, just over the 30% that was the MLB average in 2024. At the plate, Valenzuela shows a strong eye at the plate from both sides and this season, he was able to spread out his hits across the field. Valenzuela’s evolution into more of a balanced hitter as opposed to a pull-happy hitter was a major step in his development. While he may not be ready for a role on Opening Day 2025, his development and the Padres’ questions at the catcher position make his addition to the 40-man a near no-brainer. Verdict: Added to 40-Man

Marcos Castanon, Infielder

Taken in the 12th round of the 2021 Draft, Castanon was looking like a revelation after a strong 2023 campaign that saw him post a 132 wRC+ at High-A. However, the second half of his season at Double-A saw him cool down to a 101 wRC+, even though his strikeout and walk rates remained relatively identical. This season was a mixed bag for Castanon, as he brought his walk rates up to nearly 10%. However, he was arguably one of the unluckiest batters in the minor leagues, with his .269 BABIP being significantly lower than his .329 career average BABIP. This might explain the lower power numbers and on-base percentage, as his pull percentage was the second-lowest of his career at 47.1%. Castanon has become more of a pull hitter over the last two seasons, which can work at the MLB level, but it might not be the biggest impediment to his advancement. Castanon spent most of his time in the field at second and third base this season, but the Padres have two entrenched starters at those positions in Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, along with an out-of-options Eguy Rosario and Mason McCoy, who offer positional versatility. With Castanon not reaching Triple-A yet, paired with the organization’s current roster makeup, it is unlikely Castanon will be selected for the roster. Verdict: Not added to 40-man

Joshua Mears, Outfielder

The biggest wild card of the three likely additions on the position player side, Joshua Mears, has been on many Padre fan’s and evaluators’ radar since torching spring training home runs with elite exit velocities. Mears reached Double-A for the first time this season after nearly tying the Fort Wayne TinCaps’ all-time home run record. However, while his power potential is downright tantalizing, there were some red flags in his game in 2024. Mears posted walk rates north of 10% in 2022 at Double-A and 2023 at High-A, but at both levels this year, Mears posted matching walk rates of 5.3%. For a player whose strengths are in the power department, low walk rates and low batting average are not an optimistic pairing, and with San Diego having more Major League-ready outfield options in Tirso Ornelas and Brandon Lockridge, the chances of Mears securing a 40-man roster spot are minimal. Verdict: Not added to 40-man

Pitchers (7)

Omar Cruz, left-handed pitcher

Returning to San Diego via the minor league phase of the Rule-5 draft last winter, Omar Cruz re-established himself as a top prospect and MLB-ready arm in the Padres’ system. Cruz struck out over 35% of batters in half a season at Double-A, and at Triple-A, he struck out 28.7% of batters in 38.2 innings. Cruz’s command has wowed scouts, and he got an eye-popping 50% whiff rate on his changeup… over the course of the entire 2024 season. Cruz’s ability to both start games and pitch out of the bullpen provides a valuable element to any potential pitching staff, and if there’s something the Padres need on the roster, it would be a left-handed arm capable of starting games barring any free-agent additions. If there’s a surefire addition, Cruz would be it. Verdict: Added to 40-man

Ryan Bergert, right-handed pitcher

It was a tale of two seasons for Ryan Bergert, as the right-hander struggled mightily to open the 2024 season with a 6.26 ERA through his first 12 games of the season. Opponents were hitting .315 against him, and his strikeout rate sat at a low 18.7%. However, the second half of the season saw Bergert limit batters to a .600 OPS against, striking out 23.4% of batters. Bergert’s low three-quarter slot delivery allows his fastball to get some ride and run despite its 91-95 mph velocity, and his slider tunnels well against the fastball. Bergert’s changeup is not quite on par with his fastball and slider, which could limit his upside at the MLB level. Starters who are primarily two-pitch pitchers are an outlier and not the norm after all, and his strong duo poses the question of what role he would best be suited for at the MLB level. With the former West Virginia Mountaineer projected for a 2025 call-up, the Padres could take a chance by presenting him a roster spot, and perhaps a bullpen role to open the season could fast-track him to the majors. Verdict: Added to 40-man

Gabe Mosser, right-handed pitcher

One of the longest-tenured arms in the Padre system, Gabe Mosser completed his seventh season in the Padres system with an entire season with the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas. Taking the ball 28 times (starting 26 games), Mosser was a presence that provided length in the PCL, but his 5.40 ERA and 4.92 FIP were not bullish on his work. The soft-tossing right-hander leans on a mainly north-south arsenal that allows him to generate soft contact, and he is not an arm with injury concerns either. However, his performance in the PCL and Arizona Fall League present Mosser as more of a “high-floor” player at the MLB level. With other right-handed starting pitchers on the roster, Mosser is unlikely to be added to the 40-man roster. Verdict: Not added to the 40-man roster

Jayvien Sandridge & Ryan Och, left-handed pitchers

One of last season’s Arizona Fall League surprises, Jayvien Sandridge signed with the Padres before the 2024 season and was electric with San Antonio to start the year, posting an absurd 41.5% strikeout rate in 21.1 innings before being promoted to Triple-A San Antonio. Unfortunately, the first half Linsanity run ended in the altitude of the PCL. Sandridge still struck out 29.3% of opposing batters, but his walk rate surged to 18.3%, leading to an unsustainable 1.82 WHIP. The polar nature of his season makes his performance a tough evaluation, and with Adrian Morejon, Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta, and Tom Cosgrove already on the roster, would it make sense for the team to carry a fifth left-handed reliever on the roster?

A similar case applies to fellow left-hander Ryan Och, who made his way up to Double-A this season. While his surface-level numbers at High-A were not the brightest, his peripherals have really raised his stock, as the left-hander’s deceptive delivery helped him post a sparkling 1.84 cumulative FIP between the two levels. Och punched out 83 batters in 46 innings, and after jumping up to Double-A, actually dropped his walk rate by about 3%. While Och is barely at Double-A, he could be en route to an Alek Jacob-type rise up to the majors, bypassing Triple-A entirely. Verdict: While both are unlikely to be added, Och would be the more likely of the two to make the 40-man roster.

Ethan Routzahn & Kevin Kopps, right-handed pitchers

Much like Sandridge and Och, the duo of Kevin Kopps and Ethan Routzahn shares some parallels. Both are ground-ball relief pitchers who saw action at Triple-A, but each goes about their craft differently. Starting with Kopps, the former Golden Spikes Award winner had a strong start to his career but has found struggles at the Triple-A level since 2023. Over that span, he has pitched to a 6.11 ERA and more walks than strikeouts (50 walks, 47 strikeouts) in 66.1 innings, and a 6.24 FIP in 50.2 innings this season did not bode well for his progress. Kopps’ cutter and fastball have potential, but there is not a significant enough difference in their movement or velocity to overly separate the two offerings. The cutter can get somewhat slider-like qualities when it comes out in the mid-80s, but its horizontal break is less at higher velocity. As a pitcher whose arsenal leans towards an east-west movement profile, Kopps’ stuff is tailored for a ground-ball-heavy approach, and he still induced grounders on 57.6% of balls in play.

Routzahn is a similar pitcher to Kopps in profile, but there is a major difference between the two. Routzahn’s release point is at just over four feet off the ground; yes, he is a side-winding pitcher. With that release point, Routzahn is able to get solid run on his low-90s sinker. The Padres have shown they want to keep his mechanics in sync, and with his performance this season, he looked to be on the cusp of the majors. Routzahn posted a cumulative 3.48 FIP with a 3.57 FIP at Triple-A, and while the right-hander would be 27 on Opening Day 2025, he would be an optionable depth option should he make it onto the 40-man. Verdict: Unlikely both are added, with Routzahn being more likely to make the 40-man

Service Time Considerations (3)
Henry Baez & Garrett Hawkins, right-handed pitchers & Jagger Haynes, left-handed pitcher

It is unlikely that any of these three players are added to the 40-man as all have yet to make it past Double-A, but their service time in the minors makes them Rule 5 eligible. Hawkins underwent Tommy John Surgery in August of 2023, so his role and availability throughout 2025 is to be determined. It is more likely he winds up as a reliever as his fastball and slider graded well before the surgery. Baez reached Double-A this season as a starter but his peripherals at Double-A showed signs of his being fortunate with regards to ERA, as he had a 4.69 FIP (4.08 xFIP) in 50 innings with the Missions.

Baez, currently ranked at No. 7 in the San Diego system per MLB Pipeline, is unlikely to merit a 40-man roster spot, but it is possible the Padres choose to add him to keep him in the fold, akin to what the Los Angeles Dodgers did with former highly touted prospect Yadier Alvarez in 2018.

Haynes is Rule 5 eligible despite only making his debut in 2023. Currently, San Diego’s No. 20 prospect, Haynes, has only thrown 136 professional innings and is very much still developing, so it is unlikely he will be taken in the Rule 5 draft. It is not often that players at Single-A or High-A are taken in the Rule 5, with former Padres Miguel Diaz and Luis Perdomo serving as examples to an exception, not the standard.

A.J. Preller and the Padres have plenty of decisions to make in the coming weeks, and without a doubt, this team has a plan to navigate this roster going forward.

Diego Garcia

A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.

A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.