Areas of strength & weakness for 2022 San Diego Padres
Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
On June 17, the San Diego Padres led the National League West with a record of 41-24.
Since then, the team has lost 18 of the last 29 games and two home series in a row. Thanks to a hot start, the Padres cling to a 52-42 record and remain in the hunt for one of three Wild Card berths.
The month of July has not been kind to the Padres as they lost two of three to Dodgers, two to the Seattle Mariners, split a series with the San Francisco Giants 2-2, lost three of four in Colorado against the Rockies, won first two at home to Arizona Diamondbacks but sputtered into the break after losing 3-1 to the NLW’s last-place team with 40-52 record.
The run differential especially spells trouble. The New York Yankees at +199.0 and Los Angeles Dodgers at +169.0 lead all of baseball, while the Padres rank 10th with a measly +39.0. Last year, the rival Dodgers blew the Padres away +278.0 to +21.0.
So far, the theme of the year has been a surprising lack of offense. The absence of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s bat and Manny Machado’s ankle injury have exacerbated the problem, as have the home/away splits. However, despite his injury, Machado leads the team in batting average at .303 and OPS at .890.
In Petco Park, the Padres have a batting average of .224, and in other parks .256. In away games, the Padres average more hits (109) and more home runs (10). At home, the Padres have a 46-25 record, away 48-27 despite playing before huge, enthusiastic crowds in Petco Park. So far this season, 17 games have been sold out, and the totals at the end of the season will likely break the record set in the first season of 2004. In its first rendition, Petco Park became known as a pitcher’s park. However, in 2012 the Padres moved right/center in 11 feet and lowered the wall, left center from 402 to 390. Today the venue is generally considered a fair park.
Manager Bo Melvin recently admitted, “It’s disappointing that we don’t play well in front of…a big crowd every night. You’d think that would be an advantage, and it has not been.”
Obviously, the Padres desperately need Fernando Tatis Jr.’s bat, but his rehab from a broken wrist continues. According to Preller’s latest update, he won’t be ready in the near future. The timeline has stretched from late June to early August or beyond.
No doubt, the stats tell the story of the team’s surprising weaknesses.
Batting average
16th 0.241
On base %
14th 0.316
Slugging %
27th 0.374
On base plus slugging %
21st 0.689
Hits per game
16th 8.14
Runs per game 0.291
17th 4.34
Home runs per game
26th 0.82
BABIP
14th .291
RBI per game
15th 4.19
Strikeouts per game
10th 8.16
Left on base per game
24th 14.83
Runners left in scoring position
21st 3.44
Strikeout %
11th 21.4
Walk %
8th 9.1 %
Team pitching
ERA
10th 3.77
Walks/Hits per inning
6th 1.205
Strikeouts/9
10th 8.94
Strikeouts/Walks
12th 2.83
Homeruns/9
7th .99
Defense
Double plays/game
21st .78
Errors/game
2nd .40
FanGraphs defense
UZR
12th 4.1
Def
7th 9
DRS
19th 6
Pitching (top 50)
ERA
8th Joe Musgrove .2.42
32nd Yu Darvish 3.41
Wins
17th Joe Musgrove 8
17th Yu Darvish 8
WAR
18th Joe Musgrove 2.7
39th Yu Darvish 1.9
The Padres need to upgrade the offense, and A. J. Preller (team president and general manager) has undoubtedly been in touch with the Washington Nationals about 23-year-old Juan Soto. The outfielder recently turned down a 15-year $440 million offer from the Nationals. He’s an especially tempting target as he doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2024 season.
The offensively challenged Padres could certainly use a guy with a batting line of .293/.427/.541/.968, 160 OPS+, 118 home runs, and a career WAR of 21.0 in 555 games in Washington. Of course, the Nationals will ask for the sun and the moon in prospects, or young players like MacKenzie Gore and Preller will have to choose wisely.
The Padres need to bring their bats to the so-called second half of the season with or without Soto. However, the team has the misfortune of playing the Mets in New York. The first-place team in the National League East has a 58-35 record (4th in run differential at +83). Starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, owners of two Cy Young trophies each will likely face San Diego batters.
Thanks to the addition of a third Wild Card, the Padres have a bit more leeway this year than last when San Diego fell to third place in the division with a 79-83 record. But there has to be a sense of urgency,
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The San Diego Padres had not had a winning season since 2010 when Adrian Gonzalez handled first base, Bud Black managed under Jed Hoyer, and the Padres won 90 games with a payroll of around $38 million (29th in MLB). The team hasn’t won the division since 2006, with general manager Kevin Towers and manager Bruce Bochy in charge and a payroll of $69 million, which ranked 17th.
At $203 million, this year’s team has a payroll that ranks fifth behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, New York Yankees, and Philadelphia Phillies. Manager Bob Melvin has the experience. The pitching staff has the arms. The front office has run out of excuses and must correct the glaring weaknesses of the 2022 San Diego Padres.
Baseball has been a part of Diane’s life since her father played professionally (mostly at the minor league level). She has written for a number of publications and concentrated on companion animal welfare. She welcomes the opportunity to write about the sport she loves. Diane shares her home with her husband and a house full of rescued animals.
Nice article Diane!
The padres as a whole have been disappointing. We seem to finally be hitting more consistently. Cronenworth, Grisham, and Voit seem to be coming out of their two month slumps. Profar has been serviceable and Mazara has been a nice surprise.
it seems that a different part of the team fails nightly. We get no run support one night, the starting pitching vaulters another, bonehead base running, fielding, or the bullpen gives up a lead. They just can’t put it together. I hope Melvin can get them back to playing sound ball. However, a manager can only do so much.
I agree that Soto would be a very nice addition to our lineup. He might even help level the field against the dodgers. I think AJ should hold firm on a reasonable price for Soto since it is a two year rental. Seeing the players mentioned as a whole for Soto is a huge overpayment in my opinion. I’d rather AJ not sell off the future of this team for Soto. I hope he thinks long term.
The Yankees want a starting pitcher and an outfielder. Snell and Myers for Gallo and a good pitching prospect would be fine with me. I hope we retain Gore and our promising young outfielders. Otherwise, we may be looking for outfield help again in a couple years. I’d rather have the good youngsters in the lineup at the small salaries they’ll be receiving. Then, we can spend the money on starting pitching when we’ll need more in 2024.
My fear is that Preller will overpay AGAIN. He would give away everything just to say he’s the one that got Soto. We will get Soto and still not be good enough to beat the Dodgers, Yankees, or Astros but still completely gut our farm system. Then, go through a full rebuild come 2025. I hope AJ sets a fair price without giving them our farm system and the Nats can take it or leave it.
Thanks, Tony,
The topic intrigued me as it’s been a very weird season so far. In the first two games in New York, the Padres didn’t resemble the team that blundered into the break. As Annie Savoy said in Bull Durham, “this is the damndest season.”
The numbers highlight the weaknesses, especially in runners left in scoring positions. They’ve left legions of guys.
As much as I would love to add Juan Soto, I’m very concerned, as you are, about Preller overpaying. The farm system has already been stripped of most high-value prospects, and Preller can’t throw money around as he has in the past.
Then there’s Tatis Jr…. He’s the wildcard in the saga.
Thanks for taking the time to read my musings and share your thoughts.
Diane
Well, there was 2020, that was a winning, if truncated, season. But you are right about the offense, it isn’t enough. Even after adding Voit, Preller gets a failing grade for the offseason.
So we find ourselves desperate to add Soto and prevent another freefall.
So trade Abrams, Hassell, Hosmer, Merrill, Weathers, Wood and $25m for Soto, Corbin and Bell. This is painful but we keep Gore and say adios to Hosmer.
Then turn around and trade Myers and Snell for salary relief.
Let’s see if Preller can man up.
Yes Tom,
There was 2020… Just another tease.
My main problem with Preller is that there’s a lack of a coherent plan.I’m also concerned that if the Padres go after Soto the farm system will be weakened even more with no assurance of a playoff appearance. But it sure would be fun to see him in a Padres’ uniform.
Diane