A Blake Snell reunion? It’s complicated for Padres
Jul 22, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Blake Snell (7) delivers to the plate in the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
According to rumors, Blake Snell may be on the trade market ahead of the deadline. Could a reunion with the Padres be in the cards?
Despite Dylan Cease throwing a no-hitter on Thursday (yes, we will mention it any chance we get), the Padres need more starting pitching. As they press forward, seeking a playoff spot, they need to solidify the pitching staff. There is no timetable for Yu Darvish‘s return from the restricted list (again, we wish him and his family well). Joe Musgrove will return soon, but no one knows what he will look like when he comes back. He was not particularly good when he did pitch this year (5.66 ERA in 10 starts).
The Padres currently have three viable starters: in Cease, Michael King, and Matt Waldron. Randy Vasquez is in the middle of a good stretch, with a 1.71 ERA in his last five starts. He would likely be the fifth starter when Musgrove returns.
Unless the Padres can do better.
Blake Snell had a very strange offseason. After winning the NL Cy Young in San Diego last season, you would think he would be the most sought-after arm in the free world, with a handful of suitors in a bidding war. That wasn’t the case. He ended up having to “settle” for a two-year, $62 million deal with an opt-out after this season. He’s set to earn $38.5 million in 2025 if he exercises that player option (he will).
The Giants are currently six games below .500 and 5 1/2 games out of the Wild Card race. Rumor has it that they could be selling a few pieces, including the reigning Cy Young winner.
#SFGiants SP Blake Snell is generating “significant trade interest,” per @extrabaggs
Snell has a $38.5M player option for 2025. pic.twitter.com/OhKGHg2qUa
— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) July 26, 2024
His Giants tenure has been, frankly, disastrous. He owns a 5.83 ERA in just nine stats after spending a large chunk of the season on the injured list. Perhaps a reunion with Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla, in the place he won the Cy Young just last season, would rejuvenate the lefty. Let’s not forget what he looked like in 2023- an MLB-leading 2.25 ERA and 189 ERA+.
The Padres also could use a lefty starter. Not a single left-handed pitcher has made a start for the Padres yet this season. They need that extra wrinkle in the rotation.
Of course, there is the elephant in the room- the finances. According to FanGraphs, the Padres are about $13 million shy of the tax threshold they are desperately trying to stay under. He is earning $23.5 million this season. That certainly does not add up, even if it’s prorated to reflect the final two months of the season.
It might be good for him to go somewhere where he is more appreciated and already has a history of success, like San Diego. He finally got comfortable in San Diego and was well-regarded in the clubhouse with teammates.
Then there’s next season if he opts in. The Padres already have around $150 million committed to next season, which ranks sixth in all of baseball. There would need to be some serious negotiating with the Giants regarding cash considerations.
Whenever a deal involves the selling team eating some of the payroll, the prospect command in return gets richer. Also, the Padres would need to know the status of Snell’s option decision for 2025. They cannot make a deal with the Giants under the assumption he will be under contract in 2025, only for him to opt out after this season (not likely, given his nightmare 2024 so far).
The Giants likely would need to help the Padres pay down his 2025 salary as well, given the ballooned $38.5 million hit. Again, this would require a richer haul of prospects.
Given the risk of Snell’s inconsistency and bloated contract, it would not be smart for the Padres to part with Ethan Salas or Leodalis De Vries. If that’s a dealbreaker, the Padres should walk away.
However, the upside of Snell is tantalizing. If the Padres get the version of Snell that they saw only just ten months ago, that could be the difference between earning a playoff spot or falling a few games short (again). They will need to give the Giants incentive to help pay for Snell’s contract.
Perhaps a fellow lefty pitcher could entice San Francico, in Robby Snelling. The 20-year-old is San Diego’s No. 2-ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline and 45th overall. He has struggled in Double-A this year, with a 6.01 ERA. However, the tall lefty has a knack for changing speeds and manipulating breaking balls. Any team would covet thskill setset.
That still likely wouldn’t be enough for the Giants. Lamar King Jr. is blocked as a catcher in the system, with Salas on the rise. Even if the prospects line up, there is still the issue of the finances. Plus, there is also the possibility that the Giants will be unwilling to deal him to a division rival unless the haul is overpriced.
If the Giants want to play ball, the Padres will likely need to come to the table with Snelling available, at the least. The Giants need to agree to pay down Snell’s contract to the league minimum, as A.J. Preller did with the deal for Luis Arraez. Trying to negotiate the money for 2025’s possible opt-in could get messy. If the Padres can’t find a way to lower Snell’s hit to the payroll for this year and next year, this deal could die before it really gets going.
What we have learned about Preller is that nothing is off the ta,ble and he is willing to do something unconventional. It would take something unconventional to make this deal for Snell happen.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.
That is certainly an interesting idea, but, like you said, it is complicated. The $38,500,000 is a deal breaker. In fact, that actually decreases the value of Snell, which could/should require far less to obtain him.
What do you think about some pitchers in the minors to possibly make at least a few starts? While they have their obvious shortcomings, what about guys like Victor Lizarraga, Omar Cruz, and others?
What about calling up Tirso to play RF?
On another note, an interesting article would be on one the worst relatively unknown trade in Padres’ history, that of trading Brent Rooker for nothing. And no one really questioned it at the time, even though it made absolutely no sense. They inexplicably traded him for a 3rd or 4th string backup catcher, and then waived that player 1 month later. Yet no one has even mentioned this, all while Rooker is an All-Star, and who will bring in a huge return in a trade.