Despite making the World Series twice as a franchise, 2024 feels like the Padres’ best shot at a title so far in their history.

When this season started, not many pundits believed this Padres team would make the playoffs, let alone be legitimate contenders for the World Series.

Now? The Padres have won 90 games for just the fifth time in franchise history, and first since 2010. Plus, according to FanGraphs, the Padres’ 9.8 percent chance to win the World Series is currently the fifth-best in all of baseball.

This is the best chance the Padres have had to win a title in their franchise history.

That might seem funny, given the fact that the Padres have two NL pennants in their trophy room. Consider the context of those two appearances.

First, in 1984, the 92-win Padres were facing the 104-win Tigers. The Tigers have existed for 124 years, and that is the most wins they have ever put together in one season. The Padres were underdogs in that series. After winning Game 2 to tie the series 1-1, the Padres lost the final three games to yield the title to Detroit. The Tigers’ overall talent won over time.

Then, in 1998, the Friars simply ran into one of the biggest buzzsaws in MLB history. The 1998 Yankees are one of, if not the, greatest single-season team in baseball history. Their 114 wins is the second-most in MLB history. This was the first of three straight World Series titles for the Yankees with this epic core of players. The Padres had a few moments of hope but largely never stood a chance against the Evil Empire in their peak dynasty era.

The 2022 team had one of the most fun postseason runs in recent memory. They upset the Dodgers in the NLDS but ran into a hotter team in, the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS. Even if the Padres beat the Phillies, they had the grizzled, experienced, hungry Astros, fresh from a 106-win regular season, waiting for them. It’s tough to say the Padres would not have suffered the same fate as the Phillies against Houston.

This season? There are no juggernauts. For the first time since 2014, there will be no 100-win team in the league. That season, two Wild Card teams in, the Giants and Royals, made up the World Series matchup. Only one of the four LCS participants that season had more than 90 wins.

In essence, the postseason race is as wide open as it has ever been. That is the perfect recipe for the Padres.

First, they are playing an excellent brand of baseball. Only two teams in the whole league have been playing better than the Padres over the last 20 games (14-6). They have the best record in the NL on the road. To win a World Series, you will need to win games on the road. No team in the National League has been better than the Padres so far when traveling.

The Padres are as battle-tested as any team in baseball. They have winning records over the Braves, Orioles, Guardians, Astros, Brewers, Twins, and Dodgers. All, or at least most of whom, should make the playoffs.

You need pitching to win in October. The Padres have it in spades. They are fourth in all of baseball and tops in the National League in team ERA since the All-Star break. They basically have three closer-quality pitchers at the back end of the bullpen, with Robert Suarez, Tanner Scott, and Jason Adam.

The rotation is healthy and taking shape, with Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Michael King all pitching at a high level.

You need clutch hitting to win in October. The Padres are third in baseball in hitting, with runners in scoring position.

The Padres are the only team in MLB that is top four in both OPS and team ERA since the All-Star break.

Fernando Tatis Jr. missed a big chunk of the regular season with a leg injury. He has a 1.163 OPS in the last 11 games. Manny Machado is playing like the de facto team captain, with three homers and a 1.028 OPS in his last six games. Jackson Merrill could lock up the Rookie of the Year award in the NL. He has a 194 wRC+ in the last 14 days.

Jurickson Profar, of all people, has basically been the team’s MVP for a large portion of the season. If that doesn’t suggest anything is possible, nothing will.

It seems like the Padres are peaking at the right time. They also face a tough schedule to end the year, with three at the Dodgers and three at the Diamondbacks. That might be to their benefit. That could be an “iron sharpens iron” situation.

Also, the team seems to be playing inspired. They are invoking the inspiration of late owner Peter Seidler, who wanted nothing more than to have a parade in San Diego. The team wants to honor him with one. Mike Shildt has this team playing hard every game. They never quit. They frequently erase deficits.

Given the parity around the league not seen in at least a decade, with the team clicking on basically all cylinders with one week left, the Padres have as good a chance as any team to win the World Series. Plus, they don’t have a giant juggernaut possibly waiting for them in a potential World Series matchup like they did in 1984 and 1998.

This is their best shot at a title in franchise history. They best not waste it.

Nick Lee

Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.