Further Analyzing the Brad Hand/Francisco Mejia Trade

Credit: USA Today Sports

Thursday morning, news broke that the Padres had traded Brad Hand, along with sidearming righty Adam Cimber, to the Cleveland Indians for their top prospect Francisco Mejia.

In analyzing this trade, first of all, let’s talk about what the team is losing before anything else.

The Padres have traded their closer, along with one of their more valuable relievers. Hand was set to be under team control through 2021 on a $19.75 million extension beginning this season — Which is pretty reasonable money for a closer of his caliber. Cimber surprised this spring by making the opening day team as a non-roster invitee to spring training, and ended up being a strong option out of the bullpen with his funky sidearm pitching motion. San Diego has lost a couple really valuable relievers, but they have also acquired a prospect who figures to be worth much more than the relievers are going to be for Cleveland.

They’ve added one of the best prospects in all of baseball to their system, in Francisco Mejia. He’s ranked as the fifteenth-best in baseball by MLB Pipeline. For some context, MacKenzie Gore is ranked as the 13th prospect by the same rankings, so this is a really talented player being acquired by A.J. Preller.

Mejia has spent almost the entire season at Triple-A Columbus, where he hit .279/.328/.426 with seven home runs and 45 RBI in 79 games. Fangraphs prospect writer Eric Longenhagen’s report on Mejia seems to sum him up as a prospect pretty well: “we’re in wait-and-see mode on the defense — but there’s special offensive talent here.”

The 22 year-old Mejia played in eleven games last season for the Indians, and played in one game on July 14  for them just before the all-star break this year. So what is known thus far is that he is a really good hitter, who has been developing as a catcher, but also played third base as well as the outfield during his time in Cleveland’s system. His recent start on July 14th for the Indians was at DH, by the way. Reports are that the Padres will give Mejia a chance as a catcher, but one would think that he’ll see time in the outfield and third base, too. His defense at catcher has been rated as below-average, though his arm is 80-grade. At the very least, Mejia will present as a very intriguing defensive experiment for the Padres to work with.

The question now becomes, how do the Padres manage the playing time between Mejia and Hedges, if both are to play catcher? It all remains to be seen in due time, but it’s looking like maybe the team has admitted they aren’t so keen on Hedges’ hitting abilities. For what it’s worth, Hedges is hitting .382/.432/.618 in the month of July — So maybe he’s starting to turn the corner as a hitter. The most likely outcome of this situation may involve Hedges and Mejia splitting time, with Mejia playing third base or left field on some days.

Credit: AP Photo

If the team were to utilize a playing time split like this, they could keep both catchers fresh and healthy. Late in games the team could put in Hedges as a defensive replacement for Mejia. By doing this, they could fully maximize Hedges’ defensive abilities whilst not suffering as much from having his bat in the lineup every day. What’s most exciting about this trade in general though, is the Padres getting a potential middle of the order bat to pencil into the lineup.

Fans have watched this Padres team really struggle to score runs, and the games have been tough to watch as the pitchers often haven’t gotten enough run support after making a solid start. Mejia is a big step in the right direction, as far as beefing up the offense is concerned. This is a player who had a 50-game hit streak during the 2016 season, so he definitely has legitimate hitting talent. A future lineup with Mejia, Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias and others is starting to look a lot better than the lineups the Padres have been putting out this season.

With a system that is heavy on pitching talent, it’s a nice change to see the team acquire a talented position player. The team badly needs to improve their lineup so they can produce some runs for the pitching staff. Adding Mejia is exactly what the Padres needed, and is something many fans likely can appreciate after watching the team’s offense during the first half of the season. The loss of Hand and Cimber will hurt slightly, but the team was never really going to challenge for a playoff spot this season. Furthermore, there are so many talented arms in the system to take the places of Hand and Cimber. Think about nineteen year-old Andres Munoz hitting 102 MPH for San Antonio, or many of the starting arms who could be moved to the bullpen if they don’t pan out as starters.

This is still a bullpen for the Padres that has really good relievers, like Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen. According to Fangraphs’ WAR, Stammen has been worth 1.4 WAR, and Yates 1.2 — While Cimber has put up 1.1, and Hand 0.7 WAR each. By some measurements, the Padres still kept their better relievers, while acquiring a potential impact hitter to improve the lineup. In a lot of senses, Yates has been more impressive this season than Hand was, so having him step up and take the closers role shouldn’t be concerning to Padres fans. Considering how well he’s pitched, fans can rest easy knowing Yates can step right up and fill the void. For the time being, this is looking like a nice trade for the Padres, as they really needed to add some thump to the lineup. At least in the future, it looks like they have done just that.

Total Views: 231 ,
(Visited 953 times, 1 visits today)
Conrad Parrish
Sophomore at Willamette University in Oregon. Majoring in Spanish and Psychology, but also a writing center assistant for other students at school. Been a Padres die-hard my whole life, and hope to bring comprehensible statistical analysis to the site.

This article has 5 Comments

  1. Position Matters: If a player (e.g. Mejia) hits 260/330/400 at SS or C (and plays acceptable, if not good defense) then that is good. If a player hits 260/330/400 and plays LF or 3B or 1B then that is disappointing. [Hosmer is hitting around 240/320/390 at first base! This is horrible … and for only $22 million per/$144 over 8 years … but only 7.4 more years of this.] There does not seem to be any confidence in Mejia’s ability to play catcher (i.e. to play adequate defense), or even 3B, and the Padres have an ever-increasing glut of OF’s that are average-ish. So Mejia’s positionaly competence changes everything. This trade will be incredible if he plays at least a decent C AND hits 300+/360+/440+. If he can’t really find a position that he plays, let alone plays well (we can always call this “positional versatility”) then, well … Another matter, Preller’s big off season acquisition/debacle also displaced a key cog (i.e. Myers), will Mejia now displace Hedges? [yes, he wasn’t hitting, but, for whatever reason, he is raking now.]

  2. I understand the disappointment of losing Hand, and it’s something we all feel. When you think about it though, an impact hitter who is in the lineup every day, is always going to be worth more than even the best reliever in baseball who is pitching one inning at a time. Also, the Lucroy deal was vetoed because Lucroy didn’t want to go to Cleveland, not because Milwaukee didn’t want Mejia — They agreed to acquire him before the trade was vetoed.

  3. Excellent trade because of the versatility of Mejia. I would have liked to have gotten Adell, Robles or Tucker but all are OFs and teams involved likely would not have accepted the package the Padres offered – more likely a high ceiling SP like Logan Allen, Nix, Morejon or Paddack would have had to be included vice Cimber.

    Still need at least one more impact bat that might be one or two years away and a dependable #2-type pitcher to anchor a young rotation that will be around for the next few waves of top SP talent. Not worried about bullpen – lots of talent in minors and Balsley a genius in putting together a pen with discarded and unwanted pitchers.

  4. The return the Padres got was light. I know Keith Law has Mejia as the #5 prospect, but two years ago the Indians gave up 4 prospects, including Clint Frazier, about whom there was no doubt he can play his position, for Andrew Miller. Now Miller was at a different level than Hand is at, but still.
    Remember that Cleveland tried to trade Mejia once before, in the vetoed Lucroy deal. They seem to know something Preller doesn’t.
    The formula is this: one team gives up proven ML talent, the other gives up a package of prospects. This deal has it the other way around.
    2 good relievers, one an all-star, for a player Cleveland doesn’t even want? Who doesn’t have a clear ML position? It seems that unless he deals with Boston Preller gets taken. Unless Mejia becomes a star this deal is a stinker.

    1. The Padres have input from so many different avenues now (Preller, Welke, White, Cameron) that if they think Mejia was a good return for Hand and Cimber, I’m happy. Mejia was rated anywhere from 5 to 25 on all of “the lists”, so nobody can really be too unhappy. This was a good deal for both teams and selling it as anything else is just looking for negatives.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *