Padres Editorial: Where I Agree With Preller’s Critics

(AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi))

Credit: UT San Diego
Credit: UT San Diego

I like what A.J. Preller has done to alter the Padres roster, but I do agree with his critics in one area. One year ago pitching depth in the upper minor leagues was an area of strength for the Padres, and now it is completely lacking top prospect talent.

That’s not a good thing. Matt Wisler, Joe Ross, Jesse Hahn, Max Fried, Joe Wieland and Casey Kelly have all been traded away and the Padres top pitching prospects now are guys like Enyel De Los Santos, Logan Allen, Luis Perdomo and recent draft picks Austin Smith and Jacob Nix.

While nobody that Preller traded away looks like a future ace, they are all in the majors or close right now, and could have provided stability for the Padres rotation in 2016 and beyond.

After Shields, Cashner, and Ross, who will the Padres turn to while the recent acquisitions are developing in the minors? Can the Padres even afford to trade Tyson Ross to the Cubs for a hitting prospect? Colin Rea looks like an adequate 4th or 5th starter, but he probably won’t ever be more than that. And Robbie Erlin might not be any better either.

Of course it’s important to remember that A.J. Preller used all of those young arms to help acquire Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, Craig Kimbrel, and one year of Justin Upton. While the year of Upton wasn’t a success for the club, the compensation for losing him to free agency will be another draft pick in a draft class that is full of pitching.

The Padres also probably never should have acquired Kimbrel. Getting an elite closer is the definition of a “win now” move, and as we saw, the Padres weren’t ready to “win now” in 2015. BUT, Preller flipped Kimbrel for Margot, Allen and Javier Guerra. So in the end, acquiring Kimbrel turned out to have long-term value. And that’s the overarching theme with the roster moves Preller has orchestrated.

Credit: AP Photo
Credit: AP Photo

2015 didn’t pan out, but it wasn’t a year of lost value either. Instead it was a year of reallocating value. The outfield is now a position of depth with Wil Myers, Matt Kemp and Jon Jay on the big league roster and Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot and Rymer Liriano in the minors. The downside is that the rotation does not have that depth. In that context, it is fair to criticize Preller for moving the Padres into a limbo of trying to “win now” and rebuild at the same time. By the time Guerra, Renfroe and Margot are in their primes, James Shields, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross will be past theirs. Drew Pomeranz, Robbie Erlin, Brandon Maurer and Colin Rea give the Padres depth, but it’s a stretch to imagine any of them becoming top of the rotation guys.

So therein lies the Padres pitching problem and the biggest area that I am critical of A.J. Preller. The rebuild centered around Margot and company needs a frontline starting pitcher of the future, and the Padres don’t currently have one of those. Instead the Padres will be hoping for Brandon Morrow to somehow not spend most of the season on the DL (don’t hold your breath) for short-term depth, and hoping for one of the recently acquired young arms to exceed expectations.

Not likely, but it can happen. If this year pans out like many expect, and it’s just a rebuilding year for the Padres, number one on my wish list will be for the Padres to find a way to deal Shields, Ross or Kemp and get a top pitching prospect back in return. The Padres future is bright with guys like Margot and Guerra in the farm system, and would be even brighter with a future top of the rotation pitcher in farm as well.

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Sean Stone
Sean grew up watching and playing sports in Louisiana, but is now living in San Diego pursuing a MBA at University of Phoenix. Always had a soft spot for San Diego teams and is excited about the new buzz surrounding the Padres.

5 thoughts on “Padres Editorial: Where I Agree With Preller’s Critics

  1. I just hope Kemp hits .330 with 30+ HRs and somehow plays average defense in the outfield. That’s for 2016. Maybe we’ll have the DH the following year. If all that happens then Preller is forgiven completely for the players he added (and their over-priced contracts). I do believe Preller got himself into more trouble last year for what he added to the team than what actually was traded away. Myers can’t play 90 games in any season. Melvin is over-priced. Got lucky on Kimbrel with Dombrowski wanting to make a run this year.

    1. I’d just like Kemp decide to start playing before July this year. And I remain optimistic about Myers, he wasn’t an injury prone prospect.

  2. We won’t know until 2017 if your argument is correct. If the Padres still owned Ross, Wisler et al, Mr. Preller (and any other GM) would still be faced with the need to find one or more experienced starters for 2016. Colin Rea, Ross, Wisler, Wieland, Erlin, Kelly, and Fried (DL) didn’t show nearly enough in 2015 to be certainties for a ML rotation this spring. By 2017, you’ll know what they can — or can’t do. When Preller traded all of those Padres ‘prospects,’ he was implying that, as a group, they would not produce a competitive team in SD. I think he was right, but we do not yet know if he can do any better.

    1. I agree with your point that “as a group, they would not produce a competitive team in SD”. And I’m way more excited about Margot and Guerra than I was about Wisler and the rest of the group of prospects that Preller traded away. (With the exception of Turner, who I view as being similar to Margot and Guerra)

  3. Yes, I agree we are short of legitimate SP prospects. That is why Preller needs to draft starting pitcher in each of his first three picks in my opinion ( they’re all going to be within the first 30 picks of the draft). This is supposed to be a deep class of starting pitchers. Better take advantage with all these high picks we have.

    One guy I’m looking forward to is Trevor Megill. He’s got his velocity back after TJ surgery in 2013. The Cardinals drafted him in the 3rd round in 2014 even after his surgery! He’ll be back at SP for us and I wouldn’t be surprised to him advance quickly through our system over the next two years. Brett Kennedy might be another.

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